An Analysis of Meteorological Anomalies in Kamchatka in Connection with the Seismic Process
This study investigates the hypothesis that meteorological anomalies may precede earthquake events. Long-term time series of observations for air temperature, atmospheric pressure and precipitation at a meteorological station in Kamchatka are considered. Time series are subjected to Huang decomposit...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/1/78 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832589158552436736 |
|---|---|
| author | Alexey Lyubushin Galina Kopylova Eugeny Rodionov Yulia Serafimova |
| author_facet | Alexey Lyubushin Galina Kopylova Eugeny Rodionov Yulia Serafimova |
| author_sort | Alexey Lyubushin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates the hypothesis that meteorological anomalies may precede earthquake events. Long-term time series of observations for air temperature, atmospheric pressure and precipitation at a meteorological station in Kamchatka are considered. Time series are subjected to Huang decomposition into sequences of levels of empirical oscillation modes (intrinsic mode functions—IMFs), forming a set of orthogonal components with decreasing average frequency. For each IMF level, the instantaneous amplitudes of envelopes are calculated using the Hilbert transform. A comparison with the earthquake sequence is made using a parametric model of the intensity of two interacting point processes, which allows one to quantitatively estimate the “measure of the lead” of the time instants of the compared sequences. For each IMF level, the number of time moments of the largest local maxima of instantaneous amplitudes which is equal to the number of earthquakes is selected. As a result of the analysis, it turned out that for the sixth IMF level (periods of 8–16 days), the “lead measure” of the instantaneous amplitude maxima of meteorological parameters in comparison with earthquake time moments significantly exceeds the inverse lead, which confirms the existence of prognostic changes in meteorological parameters in the problem of “atmosphere–lithosphere” interaction. This study reveals that certain meteorological anomalies can be a precursor for seismic activity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fbe6a725fedc4a5ea2d8bad48b99c7a8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-fbe6a725fedc4a5ea2d8bad48b99c7a82025-01-24T13:21:57ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332025-01-011617810.3390/atmos16010078An Analysis of Meteorological Anomalies in Kamchatka in Connection with the Seismic ProcessAlexey Lyubushin0Galina Kopylova1Eugeny Rodionov2Yulia Serafimova3Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, 123995 Moscow, RussiaKamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences (KB GS RAS), 683023 Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, RussiaSchmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, 123995 Moscow, RussiaKamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences (KB GS RAS), 683023 Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, RussiaThis study investigates the hypothesis that meteorological anomalies may precede earthquake events. Long-term time series of observations for air temperature, atmospheric pressure and precipitation at a meteorological station in Kamchatka are considered. Time series are subjected to Huang decomposition into sequences of levels of empirical oscillation modes (intrinsic mode functions—IMFs), forming a set of orthogonal components with decreasing average frequency. For each IMF level, the instantaneous amplitudes of envelopes are calculated using the Hilbert transform. A comparison with the earthquake sequence is made using a parametric model of the intensity of two interacting point processes, which allows one to quantitatively estimate the “measure of the lead” of the time instants of the compared sequences. For each IMF level, the number of time moments of the largest local maxima of instantaneous amplitudes which is equal to the number of earthquakes is selected. As a result of the analysis, it turned out that for the sixth IMF level (periods of 8–16 days), the “lead measure” of the instantaneous amplitude maxima of meteorological parameters in comparison with earthquake time moments significantly exceeds the inverse lead, which confirms the existence of prognostic changes in meteorological parameters in the problem of “atmosphere–lithosphere” interaction. This study reveals that certain meteorological anomalies can be a precursor for seismic activity.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/1/78atmosphere–lithosphere interactionmeteorological time seriesseismic processHilbert–Huang decompositioninstantaneous amplitudesinteracting point processes |
| spellingShingle | Alexey Lyubushin Galina Kopylova Eugeny Rodionov Yulia Serafimova An Analysis of Meteorological Anomalies in Kamchatka in Connection with the Seismic Process Atmosphere atmosphere–lithosphere interaction meteorological time series seismic process Hilbert–Huang decomposition instantaneous amplitudes interacting point processes |
| title | An Analysis of Meteorological Anomalies in Kamchatka in Connection with the Seismic Process |
| title_full | An Analysis of Meteorological Anomalies in Kamchatka in Connection with the Seismic Process |
| title_fullStr | An Analysis of Meteorological Anomalies in Kamchatka in Connection with the Seismic Process |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Analysis of Meteorological Anomalies in Kamchatka in Connection with the Seismic Process |
| title_short | An Analysis of Meteorological Anomalies in Kamchatka in Connection with the Seismic Process |
| title_sort | analysis of meteorological anomalies in kamchatka in connection with the seismic process |
| topic | atmosphere–lithosphere interaction meteorological time series seismic process Hilbert–Huang decomposition instantaneous amplitudes interacting point processes |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/1/78 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alexeylyubushin ananalysisofmeteorologicalanomaliesinkamchatkainconnectionwiththeseismicprocess AT galinakopylova ananalysisofmeteorologicalanomaliesinkamchatkainconnectionwiththeseismicprocess AT eugenyrodionov ananalysisofmeteorologicalanomaliesinkamchatkainconnectionwiththeseismicprocess AT yuliaserafimova ananalysisofmeteorologicalanomaliesinkamchatkainconnectionwiththeseismicprocess AT alexeylyubushin analysisofmeteorologicalanomaliesinkamchatkainconnectionwiththeseismicprocess AT galinakopylova analysisofmeteorologicalanomaliesinkamchatkainconnectionwiththeseismicprocess AT eugenyrodionov analysisofmeteorologicalanomaliesinkamchatkainconnectionwiththeseismicprocess AT yuliaserafimova analysisofmeteorologicalanomaliesinkamchatkainconnectionwiththeseismicprocess |