Counterfactual analysis of extreme events in urban flooding scenarios
Study region: Jinan City, Shandong Province, China. Study focus: Applied the counterfactual method, using three extreme rainfall events, to simulate the flood risk. Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 were based on actual events that occurred in Zhengzhou City, and Scenario 3 was constructed using design patt...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824005159 |
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| author | Xiaolan Chen Hongtao Li Haijun Yu Enguang Hou Sulin Song Hongjian Shi Yikai Chai |
| author_facet | Xiaolan Chen Hongtao Li Haijun Yu Enguang Hou Sulin Song Hongjian Shi Yikai Chai |
| author_sort | Xiaolan Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Jinan City, Shandong Province, China. Study focus: Applied the counterfactual method, using three extreme rainfall events, to simulate the flood risk. Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 were based on actual events that occurred in Zhengzhou City, and Scenario 3 was constructed using design patterns with return periods of 100-year, 200-year and 500-year. Utilizing a 1D-2D coupled hydrodynamic numerical model to simulate the flood inundation under these scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region: The inundation area in Jinan under Scenario 1 was reduced compared to the actual in Zhengzhou, but the average flood depth was higher. Furthermore, the distribution pattern of flood depth remained consistent across all three scenarios. Notably, in Scenario 1, the flood depths exceed a 500-year event, while the area of inundation is less than a 100-year event. However, in Scenario 2, the flood depths and area of inundation both exceeded a 500-year event. The outcomes highlight that the differing spatial distributions of terrains among different cities, even under the same rainfall scenario, elicit varying hydrological responses, which significantly affect the distribution of flood hazards. The intensity of rainfall and its spatiotemporal distribution patterns profoundly influence the extent of the inundated areas and depths. This study provides valuable insights for urban hydrology and flood risk management, helping to enhance the resilience of urban areas in responding to extreme weather events. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fa0b9aaa349345e18b60c34b6811cb48 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-fa0b9aaa349345e18b60c34b6811cb482025-01-22T05:42:17ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-02-0157102166Counterfactual analysis of extreme events in urban flooding scenariosXiaolan Chen0Hongtao Li1Haijun Yu2Enguang Hou3Sulin Song4Hongjian Shi5Yikai Chai6State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, ChinaHydrology Center of Jinan, Jinan 250014, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, China; Corresponding author.Hydrology Center of Jinan, Jinan 250014, ChinaHydrology Center of Jinan, Jinan 250014, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, ChinaStudy region: Jinan City, Shandong Province, China. Study focus: Applied the counterfactual method, using three extreme rainfall events, to simulate the flood risk. Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 were based on actual events that occurred in Zhengzhou City, and Scenario 3 was constructed using design patterns with return periods of 100-year, 200-year and 500-year. Utilizing a 1D-2D coupled hydrodynamic numerical model to simulate the flood inundation under these scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region: The inundation area in Jinan under Scenario 1 was reduced compared to the actual in Zhengzhou, but the average flood depth was higher. Furthermore, the distribution pattern of flood depth remained consistent across all three scenarios. Notably, in Scenario 1, the flood depths exceed a 500-year event, while the area of inundation is less than a 100-year event. However, in Scenario 2, the flood depths and area of inundation both exceeded a 500-year event. The outcomes highlight that the differing spatial distributions of terrains among different cities, even under the same rainfall scenario, elicit varying hydrological responses, which significantly affect the distribution of flood hazards. The intensity of rainfall and its spatiotemporal distribution patterns profoundly influence the extent of the inundated areas and depths. This study provides valuable insights for urban hydrology and flood risk management, helping to enhance the resilience of urban areas in responding to extreme weather events.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824005159Urban floodingExtreme rainstormCounterfactual analysisSpatiotemporal distributionRainstorm transpositionHydrodynamic model |
| spellingShingle | Xiaolan Chen Hongtao Li Haijun Yu Enguang Hou Sulin Song Hongjian Shi Yikai Chai Counterfactual analysis of extreme events in urban flooding scenarios Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Urban flooding Extreme rainstorm Counterfactual analysis Spatiotemporal distribution Rainstorm transposition Hydrodynamic model |
| title | Counterfactual analysis of extreme events in urban flooding scenarios |
| title_full | Counterfactual analysis of extreme events in urban flooding scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Counterfactual analysis of extreme events in urban flooding scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Counterfactual analysis of extreme events in urban flooding scenarios |
| title_short | Counterfactual analysis of extreme events in urban flooding scenarios |
| title_sort | counterfactual analysis of extreme events in urban flooding scenarios |
| topic | Urban flooding Extreme rainstorm Counterfactual analysis Spatiotemporal distribution Rainstorm transposition Hydrodynamic model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824005159 |
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