Utilization of a Joint Point Regression Model for Predicting Mortality Rates of Common Cancers in Babol City
ABSTRACT Background Cancer is a major cause of mortality. Timely information about cancer mortality trends is essential for prioritizing health programs. Aims This study aims to use a Joint point regression model to predict the mortality rates of the top 10 common cancers in Babol City. Methods This...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Cancer Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/cnr2.70107 |
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| author | Pouyan Ebrahimi Sara Khaleghi Mohebat Vali Sahar Delavari Soraya Khafri Mohsen Karami Layla Shojaie Hossein‐Ali Nikbakht |
| author_facet | Pouyan Ebrahimi Sara Khaleghi Mohebat Vali Sahar Delavari Soraya Khafri Mohsen Karami Layla Shojaie Hossein‐Ali Nikbakht |
| author_sort | Pouyan Ebrahimi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Background Cancer is a major cause of mortality. Timely information about cancer mortality trends is essential for prioritizing health programs. Aims This study aims to use a Joint point regression model to predict the mortality rates of the top 10 common cancers in Babol City. Methods This cross‐sectional study considered all registered cancer‐related deaths from 2013 to 2021 in the Babol University of Medical Sciences' death registration and classification system. Crude and age‐standardized rates and cancer trends were calculated and predicted for the next 5 years, overall and by type of cancer and gender. Results Over these 9years, 2417 deaths from the 10 common cancers were recorded. We observed an increase in mortality rates with a slope of 12.05% from 2013 to 2016, and a gentler slope of 3.2% from 2016 to 2021. Cancer mortality rates are predicted to increase by 6.43% in the next 5 years without intervention. Detailed analysis indicates that breast cancer will have the highest mortality rate during 2022–2026, rising by 13.6% annually. Predictions based on gender indicate that, breast cancer mortality will increase by 13.6% annually for women. Also, stomach cancer mortality rates will increase by 0.15% in men annually. Conclusion Cancer mortality in Babol remains a significant public health issue with an increasing trend. Nevertheless, these rising mortality rates require urgent interventions, including cancer prevention programs, increased access to medical services, and improved quality of life. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f846173062994d40ac545cdf407d40ad |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2573-8348 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cancer Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-f846173062994d40ac545cdf407d40ad2025-01-30T15:46:35ZengWileyCancer Reports2573-83482025-01-0181n/an/a10.1002/cnr2.70107Utilization of a Joint Point Regression Model for Predicting Mortality Rates of Common Cancers in Babol CityPouyan Ebrahimi0Sara Khaleghi1Mohebat Vali2Sahar Delavari3Soraya Khafri4Mohsen Karami5Layla Shojaie6Hossein‐Ali Nikbakht7Student Research Committee Babol University of Medical Sciences Babol IranStudent Research Committee Babol University of Medical Sciences Babol IranStudent Research Committee Shiraz University of Medical Sciences Shiraz IranInstitute for the Developing Mind, Children's Hospital Los Angeles, Keck School of Medicine University of Southern California Los Angeles California USASocial Determinants of Health Research Center, Health Research Institute, Department of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Public Health Babol University of Medical Sciences Babol IranInfectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Research Center, Health Research Institute, Department of Parasitology and Mycology Babol University of Medical Sciences Babol IranDivision of GI/Liver, Department of Medicine, Keck School of Medicine University of Southern California Los Angeles California USASocial Determinants of Health Research Center, Health Research Institute, Department of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Public Health Babol University of Medical Sciences Babol IranABSTRACT Background Cancer is a major cause of mortality. Timely information about cancer mortality trends is essential for prioritizing health programs. Aims This study aims to use a Joint point regression model to predict the mortality rates of the top 10 common cancers in Babol City. Methods This cross‐sectional study considered all registered cancer‐related deaths from 2013 to 2021 in the Babol University of Medical Sciences' death registration and classification system. Crude and age‐standardized rates and cancer trends were calculated and predicted for the next 5 years, overall and by type of cancer and gender. Results Over these 9years, 2417 deaths from the 10 common cancers were recorded. We observed an increase in mortality rates with a slope of 12.05% from 2013 to 2016, and a gentler slope of 3.2% from 2016 to 2021. Cancer mortality rates are predicted to increase by 6.43% in the next 5 years without intervention. Detailed analysis indicates that breast cancer will have the highest mortality rate during 2022–2026, rising by 13.6% annually. Predictions based on gender indicate that, breast cancer mortality will increase by 13.6% annually for women. Also, stomach cancer mortality rates will increase by 0.15% in men annually. Conclusion Cancer mortality in Babol remains a significant public health issue with an increasing trend. Nevertheless, these rising mortality rates require urgent interventions, including cancer prevention programs, increased access to medical services, and improved quality of life.https://doi.org/10.1002/cnr2.70107Iranmortalityneoplasmstrends |
| spellingShingle | Pouyan Ebrahimi Sara Khaleghi Mohebat Vali Sahar Delavari Soraya Khafri Mohsen Karami Layla Shojaie Hossein‐Ali Nikbakht Utilization of a Joint Point Regression Model for Predicting Mortality Rates of Common Cancers in Babol City Cancer Reports Iran mortality neoplasms trends |
| title | Utilization of a Joint Point Regression Model for Predicting Mortality Rates of Common Cancers in Babol City |
| title_full | Utilization of a Joint Point Regression Model for Predicting Mortality Rates of Common Cancers in Babol City |
| title_fullStr | Utilization of a Joint Point Regression Model for Predicting Mortality Rates of Common Cancers in Babol City |
| title_full_unstemmed | Utilization of a Joint Point Regression Model for Predicting Mortality Rates of Common Cancers in Babol City |
| title_short | Utilization of a Joint Point Regression Model for Predicting Mortality Rates of Common Cancers in Babol City |
| title_sort | utilization of a joint point regression model for predicting mortality rates of common cancers in babol city |
| topic | Iran mortality neoplasms trends |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/cnr2.70107 |
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