Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea
When predicting the health impacts of PM<sub>2.5</sub> from future air quality changes, it is crucial to consider both air quality improvements and population aging. This study divided future emission scenarios into a base and control scenario to project air quality from 2015 to 2030 and...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/1/41 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832589155284025344 |
|---|---|
| author | Jinseok Kim Youjung Jang Hyejung Hu Younha Kim Bomi Kim Seung Jick Yoo Jae-Bum Lee Seung-Hee Eun Sung-Chul Hong Hyungah Jin Jung-Hun Woo |
| author_facet | Jinseok Kim Youjung Jang Hyejung Hu Younha Kim Bomi Kim Seung Jick Yoo Jae-Bum Lee Seung-Hee Eun Sung-Chul Hong Hyungah Jin Jung-Hun Woo |
| author_sort | Jinseok Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | When predicting the health impacts of PM<sub>2.5</sub> from future air quality changes, it is crucial to consider both air quality improvements and population aging. This study divided future emission scenarios into a base and control scenario to project air quality from 2015 to 2030 and assess health outcomes. The GUIDE model, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), was used to estimate future emissions, while the CMAQ (Chemical Transport Model) and BenMAP (Health Impact Model) evaluated health impacts resulting from changes in air quality in Korea. The study focused on the impact of population aging on future health outcomes. Both scenarios showed improved PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations, with the control scenario showing more substantial improvements due to stronger policy measures. When applying current age patterns, health impacts decreased as PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations decreased. However, when considering future population aging, health impacts increased despite improved air quality. The results excluding aging show that the number of premature deaths due to cardiovascular disease and all other causes caused by PM<sub>2.5</sub> is 18,413 in the base year, while in the future control scenario, the number decreases to 11,729. In contrast, when aging is taken into account, the number of premature deaths increases to 23,037. This finding suggests that, although PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations are expected to decline, the increasing proportion of elderly individuals will exacerbate health risks. Therefore, accounting for aging population trends is essential when studying the health impacts of future air quality changes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f5bc9e41f8e34d8c836844d570f918af |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-f5bc9e41f8e34d8c836844d570f918af2025-01-24T13:21:48ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332025-01-011614110.3390/atmos16010041Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in KoreaJinseok Kim0Youjung Jang1Hyejung Hu2Younha Kim3Bomi Kim4Seung Jick Yoo5Jae-Bum Lee6Seung-Hee Eun7Sung-Chul Hong8Hyungah Jin9Jung-Hun Woo10Environmental Planning Institution, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of KoreaEnvironmental Planning Institution, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of KoreaEnvironmental Planning Institution, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of KoreaInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, AustriaEnvironmental Planning Institution, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Convergence of Climate and Environmental Studies, Sookmyung Women’s University, Seoul 04310, Republic of KoreaNational Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon 22689, Republic of KoreaNational Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon 22689, Republic of KoreaNational Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon 22689, Republic of KoreaNational Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon 22689, Republic of KoreaGraduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of KoreaWhen predicting the health impacts of PM<sub>2.5</sub> from future air quality changes, it is crucial to consider both air quality improvements and population aging. This study divided future emission scenarios into a base and control scenario to project air quality from 2015 to 2030 and assess health outcomes. The GUIDE model, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), was used to estimate future emissions, while the CMAQ (Chemical Transport Model) and BenMAP (Health Impact Model) evaluated health impacts resulting from changes in air quality in Korea. The study focused on the impact of population aging on future health outcomes. Both scenarios showed improved PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations, with the control scenario showing more substantial improvements due to stronger policy measures. When applying current age patterns, health impacts decreased as PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations decreased. However, when considering future population aging, health impacts increased despite improved air quality. The results excluding aging show that the number of premature deaths due to cardiovascular disease and all other causes caused by PM<sub>2.5</sub> is 18,413 in the base year, while in the future control scenario, the number decreases to 11,729. In contrast, when aging is taken into account, the number of premature deaths increases to 23,037. This finding suggests that, although PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations are expected to decline, the increasing proportion of elderly individuals will exacerbate health risks. Therefore, accounting for aging population trends is essential when studying the health impacts of future air quality changes.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/1/41emission scenarioshealth impactsPM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrationcardiovascularaging societyfuture air quality changes |
| spellingShingle | Jinseok Kim Youjung Jang Hyejung Hu Younha Kim Bomi Kim Seung Jick Yoo Jae-Bum Lee Seung-Hee Eun Sung-Chul Hong Hyungah Jin Jung-Hun Woo Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea Atmosphere emission scenarios health impacts PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration cardiovascular aging society future air quality changes |
| title | Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea |
| title_full | Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea |
| title_short | Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea |
| title_sort | analysis of health impacts from future air quality changes considering the aging population in korea |
| topic | emission scenarios health impacts PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration cardiovascular aging society future air quality changes |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/1/41 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jinseokkim analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea AT youjungjang analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea AT hyejunghu analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea AT younhakim analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea AT bomikim analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea AT seungjickyoo analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea AT jaebumlee analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea AT seungheeeun analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea AT sungchulhong analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea AT hyungahjin analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea AT junghunwoo analysisofhealthimpactsfromfutureairqualitychangesconsideringtheagingpopulationinkorea |