Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Interval Forecasting Based on Time-Series Decomposition and Conformal Quantile Regression

Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Interval Forecasting Based on Time-Series Decomposition and Conformal Quantile Regression

Traditional PV power interval forecasting relies on specific probabilistic distribution assumptions, which often result in inconsistencies between the assumed probability distributions and the actual heteroscedastic nature of PV power distributions, thus affecting the accuracy and confidence level o...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Qianjin GUI, Wenfa XU, Xiaoyang LI, Lirong LUO, Haifeng YE, Zhengfeng WANG
Format: Article
Language:zho
Published: State Grid Energy Research Institute 2025-05-01
Series:Zhongguo dianli
Subjects:
photovoltaic power generation
time-series decomposition
periodic component
conformal prediction
quantile regression
interval predication
Online Access:https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202411101
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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202411101

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