Long-term probabilistic forecasts of activity mitigation in English hospitals: a national elicitation exercise providing an outside view based on judgements of experts in support of the New Hospital Programme

Objectives The planning process for a new hospital relies on assumptions about future levels of demand. Typically, such assumptions are characterised by point estimates, the flaw-of-averages, base-rate neglect and overoptimism from an inside view. To counteract these limitations, we elicited an outs...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Mohammed A Mohammed, Steven Wyatt, Thomas Jemmett, Josh Cook, Jake Parsons, Chris Beeley, Peter Spilsbury
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2024-10-01
Series:BMJ Open
Online Access:https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/14/10/e084632.full
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