Long-term probabilistic forecasts of activity mitigation in English hospitals: a national elicitation exercise providing an outside view based on judgements of experts in support of the New Hospital Programme
Objectives The planning process for a new hospital relies on assumptions about future levels of demand. Typically, such assumptions are characterised by point estimates, the flaw-of-averages, base-rate neglect and overoptimism from an inside view. To counteract these limitations, we elicited an outs...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMJ Publishing Group
2024-10-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/14/10/e084632.full |
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