Prediction of Heavy Oil Production Based on Geomechanical Analysis in Entire Lifecycle of SAGD
ABSTRACT Steam‐assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology is an essential means of efficient development of heavy oil, super heavy oil, oil sands, and other unconventional resources in the world. Accurate prediction and evaluation of heavy oil output during SAGD production is a key step of construc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Energy Science & Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.2005 |
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| author | Dengke Li Shaowen Zhu Yanchao Li Shijie Shen Zupeng Chen Zhanli Ren Yuxuan Zhou Yanfang Gao |
| author_facet | Dengke Li Shaowen Zhu Yanchao Li Shijie Shen Zupeng Chen Zhanli Ren Yuxuan Zhou Yanfang Gao |
| author_sort | Dengke Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Steam‐assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology is an essential means of efficient development of heavy oil, super heavy oil, oil sands, and other unconventional resources in the world. Accurate prediction and evaluation of heavy oil output during SAGD production is a key step of construction optimization design and economic evaluation. The traditional prediction model of heavy oil production does not fully consider many geomechanical factors, such as rock deformation and permeability dynamic evolution. In this paper, a new mathematical model of crude oil production‐geomechanical coupling was established for three stages of the SAGD life cycle (steam chamber breakthrough stage, rising stage, and lateral dilation stage). The influence of the dynamic evolution of rock porosity and permeability on production was fully considered through the sensitivity coefficient of rock strain and permeability stress. It is found that the gap between the new model and the traditional model is larger when the strain and stress sensitivity of the reservoir body is larger. The value calculated by the conventional model is small when the reservoir dilates and large when the reservoir compresses. For Karamay heavy oil in Xinjiang, China, the steam breakout time predicted by the new model is 0.72, 1.50, 1.37, and 1.44 times the conventional model when the volumetric strain is 6%. The heavy oil production of Karamay, Xinjiang, China, Athabasca, and Cold Lake SAGD production areas in Canada was predicted. In the lateral dilation stage of the steam chamber, the predicted values of the model considering geomechanical factors were 1.44, 1.28, and 1.15 times the traditional model, respectively. This model can help field engineers obtain more accurate production of heavy oil and evaluate the significance of reservoir geomechanics in SAGD production. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-edf50ed4e5ca4d18b1a3a370728a72b7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2050-0505 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Science & Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-edf50ed4e5ca4d18b1a3a370728a72b72025-01-21T11:38:24ZengWileyEnergy Science & Engineering2050-05052025-01-0113134435410.1002/ese3.2005Prediction of Heavy Oil Production Based on Geomechanical Analysis in Entire Lifecycle of SAGDDengke Li0Shaowen Zhu1Yanchao Li2Shijie Shen3Zupeng Chen4Zhanli Ren5Yuxuan Zhou6Yanfang Gao7Department of Geology Northwest University Xi'an ChinaChina Petroleum Chuanqing Drilling Engineering Co. Ltd. Chuandong Drilling Company Quito EcuadorDepartment of Geology Northwest University Xi'an ChinaDepartment of Geology Northwest University Xi'an ChinaDepartment of Geology Northwest University Xi'an ChinaDepartment of Geology Northwest University Xi'an ChinaDepartment of Geology Northwest University Xi'an ChinaDepartment of Geology Northwest University Xi'an ChinaABSTRACT Steam‐assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology is an essential means of efficient development of heavy oil, super heavy oil, oil sands, and other unconventional resources in the world. Accurate prediction and evaluation of heavy oil output during SAGD production is a key step of construction optimization design and economic evaluation. The traditional prediction model of heavy oil production does not fully consider many geomechanical factors, such as rock deformation and permeability dynamic evolution. In this paper, a new mathematical model of crude oil production‐geomechanical coupling was established for three stages of the SAGD life cycle (steam chamber breakthrough stage, rising stage, and lateral dilation stage). The influence of the dynamic evolution of rock porosity and permeability on production was fully considered through the sensitivity coefficient of rock strain and permeability stress. It is found that the gap between the new model and the traditional model is larger when the strain and stress sensitivity of the reservoir body is larger. The value calculated by the conventional model is small when the reservoir dilates and large when the reservoir compresses. For Karamay heavy oil in Xinjiang, China, the steam breakout time predicted by the new model is 0.72, 1.50, 1.37, and 1.44 times the conventional model when the volumetric strain is 6%. The heavy oil production of Karamay, Xinjiang, China, Athabasca, and Cold Lake SAGD production areas in Canada was predicted. In the lateral dilation stage of the steam chamber, the predicted values of the model considering geomechanical factors were 1.44, 1.28, and 1.15 times the traditional model, respectively. This model can help field engineers obtain more accurate production of heavy oil and evaluate the significance of reservoir geomechanics in SAGD production.https://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.2005geomechanicsheavy oiloutput predictionSAGDthermal‐fluid‐solid couplingvolumetric strain |
| spellingShingle | Dengke Li Shaowen Zhu Yanchao Li Shijie Shen Zupeng Chen Zhanli Ren Yuxuan Zhou Yanfang Gao Prediction of Heavy Oil Production Based on Geomechanical Analysis in Entire Lifecycle of SAGD Energy Science & Engineering geomechanics heavy oil output prediction SAGD thermal‐fluid‐solid coupling volumetric strain |
| title | Prediction of Heavy Oil Production Based on Geomechanical Analysis in Entire Lifecycle of SAGD |
| title_full | Prediction of Heavy Oil Production Based on Geomechanical Analysis in Entire Lifecycle of SAGD |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of Heavy Oil Production Based on Geomechanical Analysis in Entire Lifecycle of SAGD |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of Heavy Oil Production Based on Geomechanical Analysis in Entire Lifecycle of SAGD |
| title_short | Prediction of Heavy Oil Production Based on Geomechanical Analysis in Entire Lifecycle of SAGD |
| title_sort | prediction of heavy oil production based on geomechanical analysis in entire lifecycle of sagd |
| topic | geomechanics heavy oil output prediction SAGD thermal‐fluid‐solid coupling volumetric strain |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.2005 |
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