Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain
The objective of this study was to analyze the climate change experienced in Spain between 1971 and 2022 and to estimate the future climate (2050). The main objectives were as follows: (1) to analyze the temporal evolution of temperature from 1971 to the present, to quantify the warming process expe...
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2025-01-01
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| author | Blanca Arellano Qianhui Zheng Josep Roca |
| author_facet | Blanca Arellano Qianhui Zheng Josep Roca |
| author_sort | Blanca Arellano |
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| description | The objective of this study was to analyze the climate change experienced in Spain between 1971 and 2022 and to estimate the future climate (2050). The main objectives were as follows: (1) to analyze the temporal evolution of temperature from 1971 to the present, to quantify the warming process experienced in the case study and to evaluate the increase in extreme heat events (heatwaves); (2) to study the evolution of the precipitation regime to determine whether there is a statistically representative trend towards a drier climate and an increase in extreme precipitation; (3) to investigate the interaction between annual precipitation and the continuous increase in temperature; and (4) to estimate the future climate scenario for mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands towards 2050, analyzing the trends in land aridity and predicting a possible change from a Mediterranean climate to a warm steppe climate, according to the Köppen classification. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the increase in temperature resulting from the global warming process implies a tendency towards progressive drought. Given the extreme annual variability of the climate, in addition to the ordinary least squares methodology, the techniques mainly used in this study were the Mann–Kendall test and the Kendall–Theil–Sen (KTS) regression. The Mann–Kendall test confirmed the very high statistical significance of the relationship between precipitation (RR) and maximum temperature (TX). If the warming trend experienced in recent years (1971–2022) continues, it is foreseeable that, by 2050, there will be a reduction in precipitation in Spain of between 14% and 23% with respect to the precipitation of the reference period (understood as the average between 1971 and 2000). Spain’s climate is likely to change from Mediterranean to warm steppe in the Köppen classification system (from “C” to “B”). |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
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| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj-art-e55de01a247c49d58b5534409588a5dc2025-01-24T13:37:50ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2025-01-011418510.3390/land14010085Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in SpainBlanca Arellano0Qianhui Zheng1Josep Roca2Department of Architectural Technology, Technical University of Catalonia, 08028 Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Architectural Technology, Technical University of Catalonia, 08028 Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Architectural Technology, Technical University of Catalonia, 08028 Barcelona, SpainThe objective of this study was to analyze the climate change experienced in Spain between 1971 and 2022 and to estimate the future climate (2050). The main objectives were as follows: (1) to analyze the temporal evolution of temperature from 1971 to the present, to quantify the warming process experienced in the case study and to evaluate the increase in extreme heat events (heatwaves); (2) to study the evolution of the precipitation regime to determine whether there is a statistically representative trend towards a drier climate and an increase in extreme precipitation; (3) to investigate the interaction between annual precipitation and the continuous increase in temperature; and (4) to estimate the future climate scenario for mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands towards 2050, analyzing the trends in land aridity and predicting a possible change from a Mediterranean climate to a warm steppe climate, according to the Köppen classification. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the increase in temperature resulting from the global warming process implies a tendency towards progressive drought. Given the extreme annual variability of the climate, in addition to the ordinary least squares methodology, the techniques mainly used in this study were the Mann–Kendall test and the Kendall–Theil–Sen (KTS) regression. The Mann–Kendall test confirmed the very high statistical significance of the relationship between precipitation (RR) and maximum temperature (TX). If the warming trend experienced in recent years (1971–2022) continues, it is foreseeable that, by 2050, there will be a reduction in precipitation in Spain of between 14% and 23% with respect to the precipitation of the reference period (understood as the average between 1971 and 2000). Spain’s climate is likely to change from Mediterranean to warm steppe in the Köppen classification system (from “C” to “B”).https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/1/85climate in Spainglobal warmingheatwavesdroughtextreme rainfallclimate horizon 2050 |
| spellingShingle | Blanca Arellano Qianhui Zheng Josep Roca Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain Land climate in Spain global warming heatwaves drought extreme rainfall climate horizon 2050 |
| title | Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain |
| title_full | Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain |
| title_short | Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain |
| title_sort | analysis of climate change effects on precipitation and temperature trends in spain |
| topic | climate in Spain global warming heatwaves drought extreme rainfall climate horizon 2050 |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/1/85 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT blancaarellano analysisofclimatechangeeffectsonprecipitationandtemperaturetrendsinspain AT qianhuizheng analysisofclimatechangeeffectsonprecipitationandtemperaturetrendsinspain AT joseproca analysisofclimatechangeeffectsonprecipitationandtemperaturetrendsinspain |