A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China
The COVID-19 pandemic spread catastrophically over the world since the spring of 2020. In this paper, a heterogeneous branching process with immigration is established to quantify the human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 in local communities, based on the temporal and structural transmission patt...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Complexity |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6686547 |
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| _version_ | 1832554122137567232 |
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| author | Lin Zhang Haochen Wang Zhongyang Liu Xiao Fan Liu Xin Feng Ye Wu |
| author_facet | Lin Zhang Haochen Wang Zhongyang Liu Xiao Fan Liu Xin Feng Ye Wu |
| author_sort | Lin Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 pandemic spread catastrophically over the world since the spring of 2020. In this paper, a heterogeneous branching process with immigration is established to quantify the human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 in local communities, based on the temporal and structural transmission patterns extracted from public case disclosures by four provincial Health Commissions in China. With proper parameter settings, our branching model matches the actual transmission chains satisfactorily and, therefore, sheds light on the underlying COVID-19 spreading mechanism. Moreover, based on our branching model, the efficacy of home quarantine and social distancing are explored, providing a reference for the effective prevention of COVID-19 worldwide. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e181c348d3b94d9b896a37ac7dbb8756 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1076-2787 1099-0526 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Complexity |
| spelling | doaj-art-e181c348d3b94d9b896a37ac7dbb87562025-02-03T05:52:26ZengWileyComplexity1076-27871099-05262021-01-01202110.1155/2021/66865476686547A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in ChinaLin Zhang0Haochen Wang1Zhongyang Liu2Xiao Fan Liu3Xin Feng4Ye Wu5School of Science, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, ChinaInternational School, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, ChinaSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaDepartment of Media and Communication, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong 999077, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, ChinaSchool of Information Engineering, Putian University, Putian 351100, ChinaThe COVID-19 pandemic spread catastrophically over the world since the spring of 2020. In this paper, a heterogeneous branching process with immigration is established to quantify the human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 in local communities, based on the temporal and structural transmission patterns extracted from public case disclosures by four provincial Health Commissions in China. With proper parameter settings, our branching model matches the actual transmission chains satisfactorily and, therefore, sheds light on the underlying COVID-19 spreading mechanism. Moreover, based on our branching model, the efficacy of home quarantine and social distancing are explored, providing a reference for the effective prevention of COVID-19 worldwide.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6686547 |
| spellingShingle | Lin Zhang Haochen Wang Zhongyang Liu Xiao Fan Liu Xin Feng Ye Wu A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China Complexity |
| title | A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China |
| title_full | A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China |
| title_fullStr | A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China |
| title_short | A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China |
| title_sort | heterogeneous branching process with immigration modeling for covid 19 spreading in local communities in china |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6686547 |
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