Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change
Abstract The latest climate models project widely varying magnitudes of future extreme precipitation changes, thus impeding effective adaptation planning. Many observational constraints have been proposed to reduce the uncertainty of these projections at global to sub-continental scales, but adaptat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56235-9 |
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| _version_ | 1832585600465633280 |
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| author | Chao Li Jieyu Liu Fujun Du Francis W. Zwiers Guolin Feng |
| author_facet | Chao Li Jieyu Liu Fujun Du Francis W. Zwiers Guolin Feng |
| author_sort | Chao Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The latest climate models project widely varying magnitudes of future extreme precipitation changes, thus impeding effective adaptation planning. Many observational constraints have been proposed to reduce the uncertainty of these projections at global to sub-continental scales, but adaptation generally requires detailed, local scale information. Here, we present a temperature-based adaptative emergent constraint strategy combined with data aggregation that reduces the error variance of projected end-of-century changes in annual extremes of daily precipitation under a high emissions scenario by >20% across most areas of the world. These improved projections could benefit nearly 90% of the world’s population by permitting better impact assessment and adaptation planning at local levels. Our physically motivated strategy, which considers the thermodynamic and dynamic components of projected extreme precipitation change, exploits the link between global warming and the thermodynamic component of extreme precipitation. Rigorous cross-validation provides strong evidence of its reliability in constraining local extreme precipitation projections. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e14552dbd42940cfacfd86d3b94fa4b0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-e14552dbd42940cfacfd86d3b94fa4b02025-01-26T12:40:46ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-01-0116111210.1038/s41467-025-56235-9Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation changeChao Li0Jieyu Liu1Fujun Du2Francis W. Zwiers3Guolin Feng4Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal UniversityCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou UniversityKey Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal UniversityPacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of VictoriaSchool of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou UniversityAbstract The latest climate models project widely varying magnitudes of future extreme precipitation changes, thus impeding effective adaptation planning. Many observational constraints have been proposed to reduce the uncertainty of these projections at global to sub-continental scales, but adaptation generally requires detailed, local scale information. Here, we present a temperature-based adaptative emergent constraint strategy combined with data aggregation that reduces the error variance of projected end-of-century changes in annual extremes of daily precipitation under a high emissions scenario by >20% across most areas of the world. These improved projections could benefit nearly 90% of the world’s population by permitting better impact assessment and adaptation planning at local levels. Our physically motivated strategy, which considers the thermodynamic and dynamic components of projected extreme precipitation change, exploits the link between global warming and the thermodynamic component of extreme precipitation. Rigorous cross-validation provides strong evidence of its reliability in constraining local extreme precipitation projections.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56235-9 |
| spellingShingle | Chao Li Jieyu Liu Fujun Du Francis W. Zwiers Guolin Feng Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change Nature Communications |
| title | Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change |
| title_full | Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change |
| title_fullStr | Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change |
| title_short | Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change |
| title_sort | increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56235-9 |
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