Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010
Climate development with possible anthropogenic effects occurs on a background of natural climatic variations, which may be considerable, and especially in the Arctic. Natural climate variations however remain poorly understood, although they remain important for discriminating between natural and a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2011-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/175296 |
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| author | Ole Humlum Jan-Erik Solheim Kjell Stordahl |
| author_facet | Ole Humlum Jan-Erik Solheim Kjell Stordahl |
| author_sort | Ole Humlum |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate development with possible anthropogenic effects occurs on a background of natural climatic variations, which may be considerable, and especially in the Arctic. Natural climate variations however remain poorly understood, although they remain important for discriminating between natural and anthropogenic influences on current climate change. Using the Svalbard (78°N) surface air temperature record 1912–2010 as an example, we here suggest a road ahead to identify and describe such natural climate variations. By means of Fourier and wavelet analysis the record is decomposed into time-frequency space, to extract information on periodic signals and their amplitude and variation over time. By this we identify several cyclic variations on the time scale investigated. These oscillations are present in the annual record, as well as in seasonal subsets of the record. Using only three oscillations it is possible to hindcast the Svalbard temperature record well. We suggest that such persistent oscillations may be used for forecasting the overall features of future temperature changes for a limited period, about 10–25% of the record length. Our main focus is on identifying the character of recurrent natural temperature variations, but we also comment briefly on possible physical explanations for some of the identified cyclic variations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ddc9560434504fae904f45b4792c0432 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2011-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-ddc9560434504fae904f45b4792c04322025-02-03T05:59:05ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172011-01-01201110.1155/2011/175296175296Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010Ole Humlum0Jan-Erik Solheim1Kjell Stordahl2Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, NorwayDepartment of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, N-9037 Tromsø, NorwayTelenor Norway, Finance, N-1331 Fornebu, NorwayClimate development with possible anthropogenic effects occurs on a background of natural climatic variations, which may be considerable, and especially in the Arctic. Natural climate variations however remain poorly understood, although they remain important for discriminating between natural and anthropogenic influences on current climate change. Using the Svalbard (78°N) surface air temperature record 1912–2010 as an example, we here suggest a road ahead to identify and describe such natural climate variations. By means of Fourier and wavelet analysis the record is decomposed into time-frequency space, to extract information on periodic signals and their amplitude and variation over time. By this we identify several cyclic variations on the time scale investigated. These oscillations are present in the annual record, as well as in seasonal subsets of the record. Using only three oscillations it is possible to hindcast the Svalbard temperature record well. We suggest that such persistent oscillations may be used for forecasting the overall features of future temperature changes for a limited period, about 10–25% of the record length. Our main focus is on identifying the character of recurrent natural temperature variations, but we also comment briefly on possible physical explanations for some of the identified cyclic variations.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/175296 |
| spellingShingle | Ole Humlum Jan-Erik Solheim Kjell Stordahl Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010 Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010 |
| title_full | Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010 |
| title_fullStr | Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010 |
| title_short | Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010 |
| title_sort | spectral analysis of the svalbard temperature record 1912 2010 |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/175296 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT olehumlum spectralanalysisofthesvalbardtemperaturerecord19122010 AT janeriksolheim spectralanalysisofthesvalbardtemperaturerecord19122010 AT kjellstordahl spectralanalysisofthesvalbardtemperaturerecord19122010 |