Last-millennium volcanic forcing and climate response using SO<sub>2</sub> emissions
<p>Climate variability in the last millennium (past 1000 years) is dominated by the effects of large-magnitude volcanic eruptions; however, a long-standing mismatch exists between model-simulated and tree-ring-derived surface cooling. Accounting for the self-limiting effects of large sulfur di...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Climate of the Past |
| Online Access: | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/161/2025/cp-21-161-2025.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832585031625736192 |
|---|---|
| author | L. R. Marshall L. R. Marshall L. R. Marshall A. Schmidt A. Schmidt A. Schmidt A. P. Schurer N. L. Abraham N. L. Abraham L. J. Lücke R. Wilson K. J. Anchukaitis G. C. Hegerl B. Johnson B. L. Otto-Bliesner E. C. Brady M. Khodri K. Yoshida |
| author_facet | L. R. Marshall L. R. Marshall L. R. Marshall A. Schmidt A. Schmidt A. Schmidt A. P. Schurer N. L. Abraham N. L. Abraham L. J. Lücke R. Wilson K. J. Anchukaitis G. C. Hegerl B. Johnson B. L. Otto-Bliesner E. C. Brady M. Khodri K. Yoshida |
| author_sort | L. R. Marshall |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Climate variability in the last millennium (past 1000 years) is dominated by the effects of large-magnitude volcanic eruptions; however, a long-standing mismatch exists between model-simulated and tree-ring-derived surface cooling. Accounting for the self-limiting effects of large sulfur dioxide (<span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span>) injections and the limitations in tree-ring records, such as lagged responses due to biological memory, reconciles some of the discrepancy, but uncertainties remain, particularly for the largest tropical eruptions. The representation of volcanic forcing in the latest generation of climate models has improved significantly, but most models prescribe the aerosol optical properties rather than using <span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions directly and including interactions between the aerosol, chemistry, and dynamics. Here, we use the UK Earth System Model (UKESM) to simulate the climate of the last millennium (1250–1850 CE) using volcanic <span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions. Averaged across all large-magnitude eruptions, we find similar Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer cooling compared with other last-millennium climate simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4), run with both <span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions and prescribed forcing, and a continued overestimation of surface cooling compared with tree-ring reconstructions. However, for the largest-magnitude tropical eruptions in 1257 (Mt. Samalas) and 1815 (Mt. Tambora), some models, including UKESM1, suggest a smaller NH summer cooling that is in better agreement with tree-ring records. In UKESM1, we find that the simulated volcanic forcing differs considerably from the PMIP4 dataset used in models without interactive aerosol schemes, with marked differences in the hemispheric spread of the aerosol, resulting in lower forcing in the NH when <span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions are used. Our results suggest that, for the largest tropical eruptions, the spatial distribution of aerosol can account for some of the discrepancies between<span id="page162"/> model-simulated and tree-ring-derived cooling. Further work should therefore focus on better resolving the spatial distribution of aerosol forcing for past eruptions.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dd05f8d130e2456e943822d639f9a363 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1814-9324 1814-9332 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate of the Past |
| spelling | doaj-art-dd05f8d130e2456e943822d639f9a3632025-01-27T07:24:15ZengCopernicus PublicationsClimate of the Past1814-93241814-93322025-01-012116118410.5194/cp-21-161-2025Last-millennium volcanic forcing and climate response using SO<sub>2</sub> emissionsL. R. Marshall0L. R. Marshall1L. R. Marshall2A. Schmidt3A. Schmidt4A. Schmidt5A. P. Schurer6N. L. Abraham7N. L. Abraham8L. J. Lücke9R. Wilson10K. J. Anchukaitis11G. C. Hegerl12B. Johnson13B. L. Otto-Bliesner14E. C. Brady15M. Khodri16K. Yoshida17Yusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKDepartment of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UKnow at: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Scotland, UKYusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKInstitute of Atmospheric Physics (IPA), German Aerospace Center (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, GermanyMeteorological Institute, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, GermanySchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKYusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge, UKSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UKSchool of Geography, Development and Environment and Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USASchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKMet office, Exeter, UKClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USALOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne University/IRD/CNRS/MNHN, Paris, FranceDepartment of Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth System Modeling, Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan<p>Climate variability in the last millennium (past 1000 years) is dominated by the effects of large-magnitude volcanic eruptions; however, a long-standing mismatch exists between model-simulated and tree-ring-derived surface cooling. Accounting for the self-limiting effects of large sulfur dioxide (<span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span>) injections and the limitations in tree-ring records, such as lagged responses due to biological memory, reconciles some of the discrepancy, but uncertainties remain, particularly for the largest tropical eruptions. The representation of volcanic forcing in the latest generation of climate models has improved significantly, but most models prescribe the aerosol optical properties rather than using <span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions directly and including interactions between the aerosol, chemistry, and dynamics. Here, we use the UK Earth System Model (UKESM) to simulate the climate of the last millennium (1250–1850 CE) using volcanic <span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions. Averaged across all large-magnitude eruptions, we find similar Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer cooling compared with other last-millennium climate simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4), run with both <span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions and prescribed forcing, and a continued overestimation of surface cooling compared with tree-ring reconstructions. However, for the largest-magnitude tropical eruptions in 1257 (Mt. Samalas) and 1815 (Mt. Tambora), some models, including UKESM1, suggest a smaller NH summer cooling that is in better agreement with tree-ring records. In UKESM1, we find that the simulated volcanic forcing differs considerably from the PMIP4 dataset used in models without interactive aerosol schemes, with marked differences in the hemispheric spread of the aerosol, resulting in lower forcing in the NH when <span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions are used. Our results suggest that, for the largest tropical eruptions, the spatial distribution of aerosol can account for some of the discrepancies between<span id="page162"/> model-simulated and tree-ring-derived cooling. Further work should therefore focus on better resolving the spatial distribution of aerosol forcing for past eruptions.</p>https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/161/2025/cp-21-161-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | L. R. Marshall L. R. Marshall L. R. Marshall A. Schmidt A. Schmidt A. Schmidt A. P. Schurer N. L. Abraham N. L. Abraham L. J. Lücke R. Wilson K. J. Anchukaitis G. C. Hegerl B. Johnson B. L. Otto-Bliesner E. C. Brady M. Khodri K. Yoshida Last-millennium volcanic forcing and climate response using SO<sub>2</sub> emissions Climate of the Past |
| title | Last-millennium volcanic forcing and climate response using SO<sub>2</sub> emissions |
| title_full | Last-millennium volcanic forcing and climate response using SO<sub>2</sub> emissions |
| title_fullStr | Last-millennium volcanic forcing and climate response using SO<sub>2</sub> emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Last-millennium volcanic forcing and climate response using SO<sub>2</sub> emissions |
| title_short | Last-millennium volcanic forcing and climate response using SO<sub>2</sub> emissions |
| title_sort | last millennium volcanic forcing and climate response using so sub 2 sub emissions |
| url | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/161/2025/cp-21-161-2025.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lrmarshall lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT lrmarshall lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT lrmarshall lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT aschmidt lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT aschmidt lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT aschmidt lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT apschurer lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT nlabraham lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT nlabraham lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT ljlucke lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT rwilson lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT kjanchukaitis lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT gchegerl lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT bjohnson lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT blottobliesner lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT ecbrady lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT mkhodri lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions AT kyoshida lastmillenniumvolcanicforcingandclimateresponseusingsosub2subemissions |