Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the Maximum Fuel Temperature under Accident Condition of HTR-PM
The maximum fuel temperature under accident condition is the most important parameter of inherently safe characteristics of HTR-PM, and the DLOFC accident may lead to a peak accident fuel temperature. And there are a variety of uncertainty sources in the maximum fuel temperature calculations, and th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9235783 |
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| author | Chen Hao Peijun Li Ding She Xiaoyu Zhou Rongrui Yang |
| author_facet | Chen Hao Peijun Li Ding She Xiaoyu Zhou Rongrui Yang |
| author_sort | Chen Hao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The maximum fuel temperature under accident condition is the most important parameter of inherently safe characteristics of HTR-PM, and the DLOFC accident may lead to a peak accident fuel temperature. And there are a variety of uncertainty sources in the maximum fuel temperature calculations, and thus the contributions of these uncertainty sources to the final calculated maximum fuel temperature should be quantified to check whether the peak value exceed the technological limit of 1620°C or not. Eight uncertainty input parameters are selected for inclusion in this uncertainty study, and their associated 2 standard deviation uncertainties and probability density functions are specified. Then, the DLOFC thermal analyses and uncertainty analysis are performed with the home-developed ATHENA and CUSA. The numerical results indicate that the pebble-bed effective conductivity and the decay heat contribute the most of the uncertainty in the DLOFC maximum fuel temperature while this peak fuel temperature is most sensitive to the initial reactor power and the decay heat. In short, uncertainties in these selected eight parameters lead to the two standard deviation (2σ) uncertainty of ±77.6°C (or 5.2%) around the mean value of 1493°C for the maximum fuel temperature under DLOFC accident of HTR-PM. At the same time, the LHS-SVDC method of CUSA is recommended to propagate uncertainties in inputs and 100–200 model simulations seem to be sufficient to get an uncertainty prediction with full confidence. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dbb1fcb7f65043898c8db924348ef122 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-6075 1687-6083 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations |
| spelling | doaj-art-dbb1fcb7f65043898c8db924348ef1222025-02-03T01:00:07ZengWileyScience and Technology of Nuclear Installations1687-60751687-60832020-01-01202010.1155/2020/92357839235783Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the Maximum Fuel Temperature under Accident Condition of HTR-PMChen Hao0Peijun Li1Ding She2Xiaoyu Zhou3Rongrui Yang4Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, ChinaFundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, ChinaInstitute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology (INET), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaFundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, ChinaFundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, ChinaThe maximum fuel temperature under accident condition is the most important parameter of inherently safe characteristics of HTR-PM, and the DLOFC accident may lead to a peak accident fuel temperature. And there are a variety of uncertainty sources in the maximum fuel temperature calculations, and thus the contributions of these uncertainty sources to the final calculated maximum fuel temperature should be quantified to check whether the peak value exceed the technological limit of 1620°C or not. Eight uncertainty input parameters are selected for inclusion in this uncertainty study, and their associated 2 standard deviation uncertainties and probability density functions are specified. Then, the DLOFC thermal analyses and uncertainty analysis are performed with the home-developed ATHENA and CUSA. The numerical results indicate that the pebble-bed effective conductivity and the decay heat contribute the most of the uncertainty in the DLOFC maximum fuel temperature while this peak fuel temperature is most sensitive to the initial reactor power and the decay heat. In short, uncertainties in these selected eight parameters lead to the two standard deviation (2σ) uncertainty of ±77.6°C (or 5.2%) around the mean value of 1493°C for the maximum fuel temperature under DLOFC accident of HTR-PM. At the same time, the LHS-SVDC method of CUSA is recommended to propagate uncertainties in inputs and 100–200 model simulations seem to be sufficient to get an uncertainty prediction with full confidence.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9235783 |
| spellingShingle | Chen Hao Peijun Li Ding She Xiaoyu Zhou Rongrui Yang Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the Maximum Fuel Temperature under Accident Condition of HTR-PM Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations |
| title | Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the Maximum Fuel Temperature under Accident Condition of HTR-PM |
| title_full | Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the Maximum Fuel Temperature under Accident Condition of HTR-PM |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the Maximum Fuel Temperature under Accident Condition of HTR-PM |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the Maximum Fuel Temperature under Accident Condition of HTR-PM |
| title_short | Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the Maximum Fuel Temperature under Accident Condition of HTR-PM |
| title_sort | sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the maximum fuel temperature under accident condition of htr pm |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9235783 |
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