Evaluation of the impact of land-use change on earthquake risk distribution in different periods: An empirical analysis from Sichuan Province
Assessing the impacts of land-use change on seismic risk distribution is crucial for enhancing land-use planning and earthquake mitigation strategies. This study establishes a comprehensive evaluation system integrating geographic information system technology and entropy-weighted Technique for Orde...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
De Gruyter
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Open Geosciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2025-0847 |
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| Summary: | Assessing the impacts of land-use change on seismic risk distribution is crucial for enhancing land-use planning and earthquake mitigation strategies. This study establishes a comprehensive evaluation system integrating geographic information system technology and entropy-weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution methodology (incorporating 14 indicators across hazard, vulnerability, and risk dimensions) to quantify county-level earthquake risk in Sichuan Province, China, and investigates the effects of land-use changes on seismic risk patterns. Results show that (1) dominant land-use transitions involved cropland (decreasing from 24.74% to 22.76%), forest cover (+17,702 km2), and impervious surfaces (+3,558 km2). Landscape metrics indicated reduced patch density, diminished edge complexity, and simplified shape irregularity alongside increased spatial aggregation. (2) From 1990 to 2023, earthquake risk distribution showed strong spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I = 0.58, p < 0.001), with more than 75% of the province classified as very low-risk. The very high-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the western, central, and southern regions, while the eastern region was predominantly very low-risk, covering a wide area. (3) Land use composition displayed distinct gradients across risk zones: forest expansion in very-low-risk (+4.38%) and high-risk (+28.47%) areas reflected successful Grain-for-Green policy implementation. Notable grassland fluctuations and wetland degradation highlighted ecological fragility, underscoring the urgency for risk-adaptive land management interventions. (4) As land-use intensity and landscape fragmentation decrease, the area of high earthquake risk zones declines, suggesting that scientific land-use planning and effective disaster mitigation measures can reduce regional earthquake risk. Additionally, inter-city earthquake risk in Sichuan Province exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with western cities forming “high-high” risky clusters and eastern cities forming “low-low” risky clusters. These results provide actionable insights for provincial-scale disaster mitigation frameworks and municipal-level prioritization. The study advances methodological innovation and theoretical foundations for regional earthquake risk assessment and sustainable land-use optimization. |
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| ISSN: | 2391-5447 |