The Performance of Irrigation Schemes in Sudan Affected by Climate Variability and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Irrigation schemes represent the backbone of Sudan’s food security and economy. The Gezira, Rahad, and El-Gunied irrigation schemes depend mainly on the Blue Nile as their primary water source. However, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in the Blue Nile at the Sudan bord...
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MDPI AG
2025-01-01
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| author | Shamseddin M. Ahmed Khalid G. Biro Turk Hassan Ali Dinar |
| author_facet | Shamseddin M. Ahmed Khalid G. Biro Turk Hassan Ali Dinar |
| author_sort | Shamseddin M. Ahmed |
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| description | Irrigation schemes represent the backbone of Sudan’s food security and economy. The Gezira, Rahad, and El-Gunied irrigation schemes depend mainly on the Blue Nile as their primary water source. However, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in the Blue Nile at the Sudan border has changed water flow regulations along the Blue Nile. Therefore, the Sudanese irrigation schemes that depend on the Blue Nile are affected by the operation and management of the GERD. This study used datasets derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), specifically the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and crop water use efficiency (CWUE), alongside climate time-series data obtained from the Climate Research Unit, to evaluate the performance of irrigation schemes in Sudan affected by climate variability and the construction and filling of the GERD. The analysis was carried out using R version 4.4.1 and spreadsheets. A dummy variable approach was employed to examine the effects of the GERD on the EVI, given the limited timeframe of the study, whilst Grey Relational Analysis was applied to investigate the influence of selected climate variables on the EVI. The results revealed that in the Gezira scheme, the impact of the GERD on the EVI was minimal, with rainfall and temperature identified as the predominant factors. In contrast, the construction of the GERD had significant negative repercussions on the EVI in the Rahad scheme, while it positively affected the El-Gunied scheme. The advantageous effects observed in the El-Gunied scheme were linked to the mitigation measures employed by the heightening of the Roseires Dam in Sudan since 2013. The Rahad and El-Gunied schemes exhibited heightened sensitivity to GERD-induced changes, primarily due to their reliance on irrigation water sourced from pumping stations dependent on Blue Nile water levels. Additionally, this study forecasts a decrease in cropping intensity attributed to the GERD, estimating reductions of 3.9% in Rahad, 1.5% in Gezira, and 0.8% in El-Gunied. Ultimately, this study highlights the detrimental impact of the GERD on Blue Nile water levels as a significant adverse factor associated with its construction and filling, which has led to a marked decline in CWUE across the irrigation schemes. The research underscores the intricate inter-relationship among environmental, political, institutional, and infrastructural elements that shapes irrigation efficiency and water management practices. This study concludes that enhancing irrigation efficiency and assessing the performance of irrigation schemes require significant consideration of institutional, economic, and political factors, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d22cc6825e8e4d1f93850ad3f0ca02cd |
| institution | Kabale University |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
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| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj-art-d22cc6825e8e4d1f93850ad3f0ca02cd2025-01-24T13:16:46ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952025-01-0115111010.3390/agronomy15010110The Performance of Irrigation Schemes in Sudan Affected by Climate Variability and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance DamShamseddin M. Ahmed0Khalid G. Biro Turk1Hassan Ali Dinar2Institute of Studies and Consultations, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi ArabiaWater and Environmental Studies Centre, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi ArabiaCenter of Research Excellence in Palms Dates, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi ArabiaIrrigation schemes represent the backbone of Sudan’s food security and economy. The Gezira, Rahad, and El-Gunied irrigation schemes depend mainly on the Blue Nile as their primary water source. However, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in the Blue Nile at the Sudan border has changed water flow regulations along the Blue Nile. Therefore, the Sudanese irrigation schemes that depend on the Blue Nile are affected by the operation and management of the GERD. This study used datasets derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), specifically the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and crop water use efficiency (CWUE), alongside climate time-series data obtained from the Climate Research Unit, to evaluate the performance of irrigation schemes in Sudan affected by climate variability and the construction and filling of the GERD. The analysis was carried out using R version 4.4.1 and spreadsheets. A dummy variable approach was employed to examine the effects of the GERD on the EVI, given the limited timeframe of the study, whilst Grey Relational Analysis was applied to investigate the influence of selected climate variables on the EVI. The results revealed that in the Gezira scheme, the impact of the GERD on the EVI was minimal, with rainfall and temperature identified as the predominant factors. In contrast, the construction of the GERD had significant negative repercussions on the EVI in the Rahad scheme, while it positively affected the El-Gunied scheme. The advantageous effects observed in the El-Gunied scheme were linked to the mitigation measures employed by the heightening of the Roseires Dam in Sudan since 2013. The Rahad and El-Gunied schemes exhibited heightened sensitivity to GERD-induced changes, primarily due to their reliance on irrigation water sourced from pumping stations dependent on Blue Nile water levels. Additionally, this study forecasts a decrease in cropping intensity attributed to the GERD, estimating reductions of 3.9% in Rahad, 1.5% in Gezira, and 0.8% in El-Gunied. Ultimately, this study highlights the detrimental impact of the GERD on Blue Nile water levels as a significant adverse factor associated with its construction and filling, which has led to a marked decline in CWUE across the irrigation schemes. The research underscores the intricate inter-relationship among environmental, political, institutional, and infrastructural elements that shapes irrigation efficiency and water management practices. This study concludes that enhancing irrigation efficiency and assessing the performance of irrigation schemes require significant consideration of institutional, economic, and political factors, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/1/110enhanced vegetation indexcrop water use efficiencyirrigation schemesGERDSudan |
| spellingShingle | Shamseddin M. Ahmed Khalid G. Biro Turk Hassan Ali Dinar The Performance of Irrigation Schemes in Sudan Affected by Climate Variability and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Agronomy enhanced vegetation index crop water use efficiency irrigation schemes GERD Sudan |
| title | The Performance of Irrigation Schemes in Sudan Affected by Climate Variability and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam |
| title_full | The Performance of Irrigation Schemes in Sudan Affected by Climate Variability and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam |
| title_fullStr | The Performance of Irrigation Schemes in Sudan Affected by Climate Variability and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Performance of Irrigation Schemes in Sudan Affected by Climate Variability and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam |
| title_short | The Performance of Irrigation Schemes in Sudan Affected by Climate Variability and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam |
| title_sort | performance of irrigation schemes in sudan affected by climate variability and the grand ethiopian renaissance dam |
| topic | enhanced vegetation index crop water use efficiency irrigation schemes GERD Sudan |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/1/110 |
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