A two-sex model for the influence of heavy alcohol consumption on the spread of HIV/AIDS
The HIV/AIDS epidemic, one of the leading public health problems tohave affected sub-Sahara Africa, is a multifaceted problem withsocial, behavioral and biological aspects. In the absence of a cure,behavioral change has been advocated as an intervention strategy forreversing the epidemic. Empirical...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
AIMS Press
2010-09-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2010.7.871 |
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| Summary: | The HIV/AIDS epidemic, one of the leading public health problems tohave affected sub-Sahara Africa, is a multifaceted problem withsocial, behavioral and biological aspects. In the absence of a cure,behavioral change has been advocated as an intervention strategy forreversing the epidemic. Empirical studies have found heavy alcoholconsumption to be a fueling factor for HIV/AIDS infection andprogression. Previously [20], we formulated andanalyzed a one-sex deterministic model to capture the dynamics ofthis deadly interaction. But, since alcohol drinking habits,consequent risky sexual practices, alcohol-induced immunesuppression, etc., can be different for men and women, the primaryobjective of our present paper is to construct a two-sex model aimedat shedding light on how both sexes, with varying heavy alcoholconsumption trends, contribute differently to the HIV/AIDS spread.Based on numerical simulations, supported by the UNAIDSepidemiological software SPECTRUM and using the available data, ourstudy identifies heavy drinking among men and women to be a majordriving force for HIV/AIDS in Botswana and sub-Sahara Africa andquantifies its hazardous outcomes in terms of increased number ofactive TB cases and economic burden caused by increased need forAntiRetroviral Therapy (ART). Our simulations point to theheavy-drinking habits of men as a major reason for the continuingdisproportionate impact of HIV/AIDS on women in sub-Sahara Africa.Our analysis has revealed the possibility of the phenomenon ofbackward bifurcation. In contrast to the result in some HIVvaccination models [52], backward bifurcation in our modelis not removed by replacing the corresponding standard incidencefunction with a mass action incidence, but is removed by merging thetwo susceptible classes of the same sex into one, i.e., by ignoringacquisition of, and ongoing recovery from, heavy-drinking habitsamong the susceptible population. |
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| ISSN: | 1551-0018 |