Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
<p>This study introduces a new approach to multi-hazard risk assessment, leveraging hypergraph theory to model the interconnected risks posed by cascading natural hazards. Traditional single-hazard risk models fail to account for the complex interrelationships and compounding effects of multip...
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| Format: | Article |
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Copernicus Publications
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/267/2025/nhess-25-267-2025.pdf |
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| author | A. Dunant T. R. Robinson A. L. Densmore N. J. Rosser R. M. Rajbhandari M. Kincey S. Li P. R. Awasthi M. Van Wyk de Vries M. Van Wyk de Vries R. Guragain E. Harvey S. Dadson |
| author_facet | A. Dunant T. R. Robinson A. L. Densmore N. J. Rosser R. M. Rajbhandari M. Kincey S. Li P. R. Awasthi M. Van Wyk de Vries M. Van Wyk de Vries R. Guragain E. Harvey S. Dadson |
| author_sort | A. Dunant |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>This study introduces a new approach to multi-hazard risk assessment, leveraging hypergraph theory to model the interconnected risks posed by cascading natural hazards. Traditional single-hazard risk models fail to account for the complex interrelationships and compounding effects of multiple simultaneous or sequential hazards. By conceptualising risks within a hypergraph framework, our model overcomes these limitations, enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard interactions and their impacts on infrastructure. We apply this model to the 2015 <span class="inline-formula"><i>M</i><sub>w</sub></span> 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal as a case study, demonstrating its ability to simulate the primary and secondary effects of the earthquake on buildings and roads across the whole earthquake-affected area. The model predicts the overall pattern of earthquake-induced building damage and landslide impacts, albeit with a tendency towards over-prediction. Our findings underscore the potential of the hypergraph approach for multi-hazard risk assessment, offering advances in rapid computation and scenario exploration for cascading geo-hazards. This approach could provide valuable insights for disaster risk reduction and humanitarian contingency planning, where the anticipation of large-scale trends is often more important than the prediction of detailed impacts.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c886ae1c63d247dfa3be24a8039936ff |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-c886ae1c63d247dfa3be24a8039936ff2025-01-20T10:54:11ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812025-01-012526728510.5194/nhess-25-267-2025Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in NepalA. Dunant0T. R. Robinson1A. L. Densmore2N. J. Rosser3R. M. Rajbhandari4M. Kincey5S. Li6P. R. Awasthi7M. Van Wyk de Vries8M. Van Wyk de Vries9R. Guragain10E. Harvey11S. Dadson12Institute of Hazard, Risk, and Resilience, Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UKSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New ZealandInstitute of Hazard, Risk, and Resilience, Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UKInstitute of Hazard, Risk, and Resilience, Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UKUN Resident Coordinator's Office, Kathmandu, NepalSchool of Geography, Politics, and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UKDepartment of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UKUN Resident Coordinator's Office, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKNational Society for Earthquake Technology – Nepal (NSET), Kathmandu, NepalInstitute of Hazard, Risk, and Resilience, Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UKSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK<p>This study introduces a new approach to multi-hazard risk assessment, leveraging hypergraph theory to model the interconnected risks posed by cascading natural hazards. Traditional single-hazard risk models fail to account for the complex interrelationships and compounding effects of multiple simultaneous or sequential hazards. By conceptualising risks within a hypergraph framework, our model overcomes these limitations, enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard interactions and their impacts on infrastructure. We apply this model to the 2015 <span class="inline-formula"><i>M</i><sub>w</sub></span> 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal as a case study, demonstrating its ability to simulate the primary and secondary effects of the earthquake on buildings and roads across the whole earthquake-affected area. The model predicts the overall pattern of earthquake-induced building damage and landslide impacts, albeit with a tendency towards over-prediction. Our findings underscore the potential of the hypergraph approach for multi-hazard risk assessment, offering advances in rapid computation and scenario exploration for cascading geo-hazards. This approach could provide valuable insights for disaster risk reduction and humanitarian contingency planning, where the anticipation of large-scale trends is often more important than the prediction of detailed impacts.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/267/2025/nhess-25-267-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | A. Dunant T. R. Robinson A. L. Densmore N. J. Rosser R. M. Rajbhandari M. Kincey S. Li P. R. Awasthi M. Van Wyk de Vries M. Van Wyk de Vries R. Guragain E. Harvey S. Dadson Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal |
| title_full | Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal |
| title_fullStr | Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal |
| title_short | Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal |
| title_sort | impacts from cascading multi hazards using hypergraphs a case study from the 2015 gorkha earthquake in nepal |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/267/2025/nhess-25-267-2025.pdf |
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