Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. T...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2011-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/543146 |
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| author | Jan-Erik Solheim Kjell Stordahl Ole Humlum |
| author_facet | Jan-Erik Solheim Kjell Stordahl Ole Humlum |
| author_sort | Jan-Erik Solheim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10–12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle are used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer, and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exist, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5±2°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009–20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈6°C. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bc4a517369a14a2d81b3d564e467bba9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2011-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-bc4a517369a14a2d81b3d564e467bba92025-02-03T05:46:23ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172011-01-01201110.1155/2011/543146543146Solar Activity and Svalbard TemperaturesJan-Erik Solheim0Kjell Stordahl1Ole Humlum2Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, 9037 Tromsø, NorwayFinance, Telenor Norway, Snarøyveien 30, 1331 Fornebu, NorwayDepartment of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, NorwayThe long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10–12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle are used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer, and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exist, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5±2°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009–20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈6°C.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/543146 |
| spellingShingle | Jan-Erik Solheim Kjell Stordahl Ole Humlum Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
| title_full | Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
| title_fullStr | Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
| title_full_unstemmed | Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
| title_short | Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
| title_sort | solar activity and svalbard temperatures |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/543146 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT janeriksolheim solaractivityandsvalbardtemperatures AT kjellstordahl solaractivityandsvalbardtemperatures AT olehumlum solaractivityandsvalbardtemperatures |