Effects of climate change on wet and dry spells in Kelantan River basin using physically-based hydrological model and CMIP6 scenarios

Study region: Kelantan River basin. Study focus: This study integrated CMIP6 datasets with the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model to assess the influence of the four main Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) on the temporal discharge of the Kelantan River. This also encompassed an evaluation of...

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Main Authors: Nurul Afiqah Mohamad Arbai, Masayasu Irie
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-04-01
Series:Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000436
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author Nurul Afiqah Mohamad Arbai
Masayasu Irie
author_facet Nurul Afiqah Mohamad Arbai
Masayasu Irie
author_sort Nurul Afiqah Mohamad Arbai
collection DOAJ
description Study region: Kelantan River basin. Study focus: This study integrated CMIP6 datasets with the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model to assess the influence of the four main Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) on the temporal discharge of the Kelantan River. This also encompassed an evaluation of its impact on the changes in design discharge for both high-flow and low-flow conditions. New hydrological insights for the region: The analysis of basin behavior under various SSPs is relatively new in Malaysia; thus, this study was conducted to evaluate the impact on the Kelantan River basin, encompassing wet and dry conditions. Based on the projected precipitation and evapotranspiration, the discharge at the Kelantan River mouth were generated using the RRI model. The climate scenarios of SSP5–8.5 and SSP3–7.0 resulted in the wettest and driest conditions in terms of annual and monthly effective precipitation and discharge patterns. It was predicted that the basin would experience the wettest and driest from 2051 to 2075. The northeast monsoon season was expected to result in a wetter condition, while the southeast monsoon was expected to result in a drier condition. Despite the alterations in the climate, the study found no instance of low precipitation and high evapotranspiration occurring simultaneously. SSP5–8.5 yielded the most extreme design discharge for both wet and dry spells considering the temporal daily variability of the climate scenarios.
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spelling doaj-art-b68b47a2e9bf4b3eb1a458ec0d0822652025-02-03T04:16:44ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-04-0158102219Effects of climate change on wet and dry spells in Kelantan River basin using physically-based hydrological model and CMIP6 scenariosNurul Afiqah Mohamad Arbai0Masayasu Irie1Department of Civil Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan; Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering Department, Dr. Nik & Associates Sdn. Bhd., Wangsa Maju, Kuala Lumpur 53300, Malaysia; Corresponding author at: Department of Civil Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan.Department of Civil Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, JapanStudy region: Kelantan River basin. Study focus: This study integrated CMIP6 datasets with the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model to assess the influence of the four main Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) on the temporal discharge of the Kelantan River. This also encompassed an evaluation of its impact on the changes in design discharge for both high-flow and low-flow conditions. New hydrological insights for the region: The analysis of basin behavior under various SSPs is relatively new in Malaysia; thus, this study was conducted to evaluate the impact on the Kelantan River basin, encompassing wet and dry conditions. Based on the projected precipitation and evapotranspiration, the discharge at the Kelantan River mouth were generated using the RRI model. The climate scenarios of SSP5–8.5 and SSP3–7.0 resulted in the wettest and driest conditions in terms of annual and monthly effective precipitation and discharge patterns. It was predicted that the basin would experience the wettest and driest from 2051 to 2075. The northeast monsoon season was expected to result in a wetter condition, while the southeast monsoon was expected to result in a drier condition. Despite the alterations in the climate, the study found no instance of low precipitation and high evapotranspiration occurring simultaneously. SSP5–8.5 yielded the most extreme design discharge for both wet and dry spells considering the temporal daily variability of the climate scenarios.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000436CMIP6RRI modelDry spellWet spellDesign dischargeKelantan River basin
spellingShingle Nurul Afiqah Mohamad Arbai
Masayasu Irie
Effects of climate change on wet and dry spells in Kelantan River basin using physically-based hydrological model and CMIP6 scenarios
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
CMIP6
RRI model
Dry spell
Wet spell
Design discharge
Kelantan River basin
title Effects of climate change on wet and dry spells in Kelantan River basin using physically-based hydrological model and CMIP6 scenarios
title_full Effects of climate change on wet and dry spells in Kelantan River basin using physically-based hydrological model and CMIP6 scenarios
title_fullStr Effects of climate change on wet and dry spells in Kelantan River basin using physically-based hydrological model and CMIP6 scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Effects of climate change on wet and dry spells in Kelantan River basin using physically-based hydrological model and CMIP6 scenarios
title_short Effects of climate change on wet and dry spells in Kelantan River basin using physically-based hydrological model and CMIP6 scenarios
title_sort effects of climate change on wet and dry spells in kelantan river basin using physically based hydrological model and cmip6 scenarios
topic CMIP6
RRI model
Dry spell
Wet spell
Design discharge
Kelantan River basin
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000436
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