Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border
The main objective of this article is to isolate the key factors that need to be taken into account in a prospective analysis of the Colombo-Venezuelan border. In the first place, the links between prospective analysis and political risk assessment are examined. Next both are related to the features...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Spanish |
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Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Sede Ecuador
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Íconos |
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.flacsoandes.edu.ec/iconos/article/view/4676 |
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| author | Martha Ardila Jorge Iván Lozano María Alejandra Quintero |
| author_facet | Martha Ardila Jorge Iván Lozano María Alejandra Quintero |
| author_sort | Martha Ardila |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The main objective of this article is to isolate the key factors that need to be taken into account in a prospective analysis of the Colombo-Venezuelan border. In the first place, the links between prospective analysis and political risk assessment are examined. Next both are related to the features which are relevant to their study. Next, methodological issues are discussed based on a review of historical and current academic studies, press reports and case studies built on the results of focus groups and interviews with experts. These materials are used to develop a methodology, build indicators and establish plausible scenarios. In third place, conceptual and practical issues regarding the border are revised, including, foremost, Colombian policies regarding this topic. In the fourth place, economic, political and military risks in the Colombo-Venezuelan border are assessed as well as the particular challenges the border context poses for these aspects. Likewise the impact of COVID-19 need also to be taken into account in any realistic risk calculations to be made in these regions. Finally, the theoretical approach of the article is used to examine three future potential scenarios: one possible, one probable and one desirable. The conclusion is drawn that, due to current developments in the border, migration and crime are expected to increase, while the economic outlook will worsen in the short term. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-afd77e8b52b944928ef67d3277784fa9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1390-1249 2224-6983 |
| language | Spanish |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Sede Ecuador |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Íconos |
| spelling | doaj-art-afd77e8b52b944928ef67d3277784fa92025-02-02T08:44:43ZspaFacultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Sede EcuadorÍconos1390-12492224-69832021-05-012570375710.17141/iconos.70.2021.4676Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan borderMartha Ardila0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7440-9752Jorge Iván Lozano1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5302-8483María Alejandra Quintero2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0722-1258Universidad Externado de ColombiaUniversidad Externado de ColombiaUniversidad Externado de ColombiaThe main objective of this article is to isolate the key factors that need to be taken into account in a prospective analysis of the Colombo-Venezuelan border. In the first place, the links between prospective analysis and political risk assessment are examined. Next both are related to the features which are relevant to their study. Next, methodological issues are discussed based on a review of historical and current academic studies, press reports and case studies built on the results of focus groups and interviews with experts. These materials are used to develop a methodology, build indicators and establish plausible scenarios. In third place, conceptual and practical issues regarding the border are revised, including, foremost, Colombian policies regarding this topic. In the fourth place, economic, political and military risks in the Colombo-Venezuelan border are assessed as well as the particular challenges the border context poses for these aspects. Likewise the impact of COVID-19 need also to be taken into account in any realistic risk calculations to be made in these regions. Finally, the theoretical approach of the article is used to examine three future potential scenarios: one possible, one probable and one desirable. The conclusion is drawn that, due to current developments in the border, migration and crime are expected to increase, while the economic outlook will worsen in the short term.https://revistas.flacsoandes.edu.ec/iconos/article/view/4676territorial settingsscenarioscolombo-venezuelan borderprospectiveborder securitycountry risk |
| spellingShingle | Martha Ardila Jorge Iván Lozano María Alejandra Quintero Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border Íconos territorial settings scenarios colombo-venezuelan border prospective border security country risk |
| title | Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title_full | Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title_fullStr | Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title_short | Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title_sort | dynamics vulnerabilities and prospects of the colombian venezuelan border |
| topic | territorial settings scenarios colombo-venezuelan border prospective border security country risk |
| url | https://revistas.flacsoandes.edu.ec/iconos/article/view/4676 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT marthaardila dynamicsvulnerabilitiesandprospectsofthecolombianvenezuelanborder AT jorgeivanlozano dynamicsvulnerabilitiesandprospectsofthecolombianvenezuelanborder AT mariaalejandraquintero dynamicsvulnerabilitiesandprospectsofthecolombianvenezuelanborder |