Greenness and averted mortality in 390 cities in China (2000–2020)Research in context
Summary: Background: China's growth over recent decades rapidly transformed the urban landscapes. Green spaces provide numerous health benefits including acting as nature-based solutions for climate change risks. Our study aims to track greenness trends in urban areas in China and quantify the...
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606524002773 |
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| author | John S. Ji Zheng Tao Hui Miao Tom Cole-Hunter Xuecao Li David Rojas-Rueda Wenjia Cai |
| author_facet | John S. Ji Zheng Tao Hui Miao Tom Cole-Hunter Xuecao Li David Rojas-Rueda Wenjia Cai |
| author_sort | John S. Ji |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: China's growth over recent decades rapidly transformed the urban landscapes. Green spaces provide numerous health benefits including acting as nature-based solutions for climate change risks. Our study aims to track greenness trends in urban areas in China and quantify the health impact of greenness on adult mortality. Methods: In China, we mapped the urban human population distribution aged 20 and above with a 1 km grid (30 arc-second) and used satellite-based remote sensing to measure green space over time to create population-weighted normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We tracked changes in greenness in the urban area over time and created a spatial–temporal map. Based on counterfactual scenarios, we calculated averted deaths attributed to NDVI changes from 2000 to 2020. Findings: We analyzed and mapped 390 cities or urban areas in China, covering an urban population of nearly 500 million. We found population-weighted NDVI exhibiting an overall increase from 2000 to 2020 for most cities. Our analysis calculated urban areas that experienced decrease in urban NDVI from 2000 to 2010 could have had an estimated 9951 additional deaths annually (95% CI: 3346–18,106), while increase in NDVI from 2010 to 2020 could have averted an estimated 37,653 deaths annually (95% CI: 26,327–60,135). If the NDVI were increased to the target level in 2000 and 2010, the number of deaths would be reduced by 110,976 (95% CI: 82,010–171,561) and 118,330 (95% CI: 87,362–183,283), respectively. Interpretation: Greenness has increased in most urban in China since 2000. Considering the ongoing impacts of climate change and urbanization, sustained efforts in greenness management could serve as an effective resilience factor for protecting population health. Funding: Natural Science Foundation of Beijing (IS23105), National Natural Science Foundation of China (82250610230, 72061137004), World Health Organization (2024/1463606-0), Research Fund Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua University (2024JC002). |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-aebdd7e55be64262aecdbbd347bf4c01 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2666-6065 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific |
| spelling | doaj-art-aebdd7e55be64262aecdbbd347bf4c012025-01-18T05:05:19ZengElsevierThe Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific2666-60652025-01-0154101283Greenness and averted mortality in 390 cities in China (2000–2020)Research in contextJohn S. Ji0Zheng Tao1Hui Miao2Tom Cole-Hunter3Xuecao Li4David Rojas-Rueda5Wenjia Cai6Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Corresponding author. Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, ChinaVanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, ChinaSection of Environmental Health, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, DenmarkCollege of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; Colorado School of Public Health, Colorado State University, 1601 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USADepartment of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, ChinaSummary: Background: China's growth over recent decades rapidly transformed the urban landscapes. Green spaces provide numerous health benefits including acting as nature-based solutions for climate change risks. Our study aims to track greenness trends in urban areas in China and quantify the health impact of greenness on adult mortality. Methods: In China, we mapped the urban human population distribution aged 20 and above with a 1 km grid (30 arc-second) and used satellite-based remote sensing to measure green space over time to create population-weighted normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We tracked changes in greenness in the urban area over time and created a spatial–temporal map. Based on counterfactual scenarios, we calculated averted deaths attributed to NDVI changes from 2000 to 2020. Findings: We analyzed and mapped 390 cities or urban areas in China, covering an urban population of nearly 500 million. We found population-weighted NDVI exhibiting an overall increase from 2000 to 2020 for most cities. Our analysis calculated urban areas that experienced decrease in urban NDVI from 2000 to 2010 could have had an estimated 9951 additional deaths annually (95% CI: 3346–18,106), while increase in NDVI from 2010 to 2020 could have averted an estimated 37,653 deaths annually (95% CI: 26,327–60,135). If the NDVI were increased to the target level in 2000 and 2010, the number of deaths would be reduced by 110,976 (95% CI: 82,010–171,561) and 118,330 (95% CI: 87,362–183,283), respectively. Interpretation: Greenness has increased in most urban in China since 2000. Considering the ongoing impacts of climate change and urbanization, sustained efforts in greenness management could serve as an effective resilience factor for protecting population health. Funding: Natural Science Foundation of Beijing (IS23105), National Natural Science Foundation of China (82250610230, 72061137004), World Health Organization (2024/1463606-0), Research Fund Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua University (2024JC002).http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606524002773Green spaceHealth impactChinaUrban healthHealthy cities |
| spellingShingle | John S. Ji Zheng Tao Hui Miao Tom Cole-Hunter Xuecao Li David Rojas-Rueda Wenjia Cai Greenness and averted mortality in 390 cities in China (2000–2020)Research in context The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific Green space Health impact China Urban health Healthy cities |
| title | Greenness and averted mortality in 390 cities in China (2000–2020)Research in context |
| title_full | Greenness and averted mortality in 390 cities in China (2000–2020)Research in context |
| title_fullStr | Greenness and averted mortality in 390 cities in China (2000–2020)Research in context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Greenness and averted mortality in 390 cities in China (2000–2020)Research in context |
| title_short | Greenness and averted mortality in 390 cities in China (2000–2020)Research in context |
| title_sort | greenness and averted mortality in 390 cities in china 2000 2020 research in context |
| topic | Green space Health impact China Urban health Healthy cities |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606524002773 |
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