Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models
Abstract Marine net primary production supports critical ecosystem services and the carbon cycle. However, the lack of consensus in the direction and magnitude of projected change in net primary production from models undermines efforts to assess climate impacts on marine ecosystems with confidence....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02051-4 |
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| _version_ | 1832571258289520640 |
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| author | Thomas J. Ryan-Keogh Alessandro Tagliabue Sandy J. Thomalla |
| author_facet | Thomas J. Ryan-Keogh Alessandro Tagliabue Sandy J. Thomalla |
| author_sort | Thomas J. Ryan-Keogh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Marine net primary production supports critical ecosystem services and the carbon cycle. However, the lack of consensus in the direction and magnitude of projected change in net primary production from models undermines efforts to assess climate impacts on marine ecosystems with confidence. Here we use contemporary remote sensing net primary production trends (1998–2023) from six remote sensing algorithms to discriminate amongst fifteen divergent model projections. A model ranking scheme, based on the similarity of linear responses of net primary production to changes in sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a and the mixed layer, finds that future declines in net primary production are more likely than presently predicted. Even the best ranking models still underestimate the sensitivity of declines in net primary production to ocean warming, suggesting shortcomings remain. Reproducing this greater temperature sensitivity may lead to even larger declines in future net primary production than presently considered for impact assessment. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ac1aaa0f79af49619c53743ae5d3f52f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-ac1aaa0f79af49619c53743ae5d3f52f2025-02-02T12:44:13ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-02-016111010.1038/s43247-025-02051-4Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate modelsThomas J. Ryan-Keogh0Alessandro Tagliabue1Sandy J. Thomalla2Southern Ocean Carbon-Climate Observatory, CSIRDepartment of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of LiverpoolSouthern Ocean Carbon-Climate Observatory, CSIRAbstract Marine net primary production supports critical ecosystem services and the carbon cycle. However, the lack of consensus in the direction and magnitude of projected change in net primary production from models undermines efforts to assess climate impacts on marine ecosystems with confidence. Here we use contemporary remote sensing net primary production trends (1998–2023) from six remote sensing algorithms to discriminate amongst fifteen divergent model projections. A model ranking scheme, based on the similarity of linear responses of net primary production to changes in sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a and the mixed layer, finds that future declines in net primary production are more likely than presently predicted. Even the best ranking models still underestimate the sensitivity of declines in net primary production to ocean warming, suggesting shortcomings remain. Reproducing this greater temperature sensitivity may lead to even larger declines in future net primary production than presently considered for impact assessment.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02051-4 |
| spellingShingle | Thomas J. Ryan-Keogh Alessandro Tagliabue Sandy J. Thomalla Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models |
| title_full | Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models |
| title_fullStr | Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models |
| title_short | Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models |
| title_sort | global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02051-4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT thomasjryankeogh globaldeclineinnetprimaryproductionunderestimatedbyclimatemodels AT alessandrotagliabue globaldeclineinnetprimaryproductionunderestimatedbyclimatemodels AT sandyjthomalla globaldeclineinnetprimaryproductionunderestimatedbyclimatemodels |