Projecting the Shift of Chub Mackerel (<i>Scomber japonicus</i>) Spawning Grounds Driven by Climate Change in the Western North Pacific Ocean
Spawning grounds may shift due to climate change and subsequent variations in the marine environment, but few studies have aimed to project shifts in the spawning grounds of chub mackerel driven by climate change. We projected the effects of climate change on the spawning grounds of chub mackerel (&...
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MDPI AG
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Fishes |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2410-3888/10/1/20 |
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| author | Seonggil Go Joon-ho Lee Sukgeun Jung |
| author_facet | Seonggil Go Joon-ho Lee Sukgeun Jung |
| author_sort | Seonggil Go |
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| description | Spawning grounds may shift due to climate change and subsequent variations in the marine environment, but few studies have aimed to project shifts in the spawning grounds of chub mackerel driven by climate change. We projected the effects of climate change on the spawning grounds of chub mackerel (<i>Scomber japonicus</i>) by developing and applying a suitable spawning ground index based on a regional ocean circulation model for the western North Pacific. Our model indicated that the potential spawning grounds of chub mackerel extended from southern waters of the East China Sea to the Korea Strait, Yellow Sea, and Japan/East Sea. Despite some uncertainty, our model based on climate change scenarios projected that, by the 2050s, spawning grounds will shift northward due to warming of the ocean surface, resulting in a subsequent westward shift of nursery grounds from the Japan/East Sea to the Korea Strait and Yellow Sea. Our projections will contribute to clarifying the impacts of climate change on the distribution of exploitable chub mackerel, the adaptation of fisheries to climate change, and the reliability of stock assessments used for fisheries management in the region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a5927efdf7964d8ea902c8b41db0cff6 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2410-3888 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Fishes |
| spelling | doaj-art-a5927efdf7964d8ea902c8b41db0cff62025-01-24T13:32:28ZengMDPI AGFishes2410-38882025-01-011012010.3390/fishes10010020Projecting the Shift of Chub Mackerel (<i>Scomber japonicus</i>) Spawning Grounds Driven by Climate Change in the Western North Pacific OceanSeonggil Go0Joon-ho Lee1Sukgeun Jung2Tropical & Subtropical Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Jeju 63349, Republic of KoreaUnderwater Survey Technology 21, Incheon 21999, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Marine Life Science, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Republic of KoreaSpawning grounds may shift due to climate change and subsequent variations in the marine environment, but few studies have aimed to project shifts in the spawning grounds of chub mackerel driven by climate change. We projected the effects of climate change on the spawning grounds of chub mackerel (<i>Scomber japonicus</i>) by developing and applying a suitable spawning ground index based on a regional ocean circulation model for the western North Pacific. Our model indicated that the potential spawning grounds of chub mackerel extended from southern waters of the East China Sea to the Korea Strait, Yellow Sea, and Japan/East Sea. Despite some uncertainty, our model based on climate change scenarios projected that, by the 2050s, spawning grounds will shift northward due to warming of the ocean surface, resulting in a subsequent westward shift of nursery grounds from the Japan/East Sea to the Korea Strait and Yellow Sea. Our projections will contribute to clarifying the impacts of climate change on the distribution of exploitable chub mackerel, the adaptation of fisheries to climate change, and the reliability of stock assessments used for fisheries management in the region.https://www.mdpi.com/2410-3888/10/1/20Tsushima Warm Current stockregional ocean circulation modelpotential spawning ground |
| spellingShingle | Seonggil Go Joon-ho Lee Sukgeun Jung Projecting the Shift of Chub Mackerel (<i>Scomber japonicus</i>) Spawning Grounds Driven by Climate Change in the Western North Pacific Ocean Fishes Tsushima Warm Current stock regional ocean circulation model potential spawning ground |
| title | Projecting the Shift of Chub Mackerel (<i>Scomber japonicus</i>) Spawning Grounds Driven by Climate Change in the Western North Pacific Ocean |
| title_full | Projecting the Shift of Chub Mackerel (<i>Scomber japonicus</i>) Spawning Grounds Driven by Climate Change in the Western North Pacific Ocean |
| title_fullStr | Projecting the Shift of Chub Mackerel (<i>Scomber japonicus</i>) Spawning Grounds Driven by Climate Change in the Western North Pacific Ocean |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting the Shift of Chub Mackerel (<i>Scomber japonicus</i>) Spawning Grounds Driven by Climate Change in the Western North Pacific Ocean |
| title_short | Projecting the Shift of Chub Mackerel (<i>Scomber japonicus</i>) Spawning Grounds Driven by Climate Change in the Western North Pacific Ocean |
| title_sort | projecting the shift of chub mackerel i scomber japonicus i spawning grounds driven by climate change in the western north pacific ocean |
| topic | Tsushima Warm Current stock regional ocean circulation model potential spawning ground |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2410-3888/10/1/20 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT seonggilgo projectingtheshiftofchubmackereliscomberjaponicusispawninggroundsdrivenbyclimatechangeinthewesternnorthpacificocean AT joonholee projectingtheshiftofchubmackereliscomberjaponicusispawninggroundsdrivenbyclimatechangeinthewesternnorthpacificocean AT sukgeunjung projectingtheshiftofchubmackereliscomberjaponicusispawninggroundsdrivenbyclimatechangeinthewesternnorthpacificocean |