Influential Factor Analysis and Prediction on Initial Metro Network Ridership in Xi’an, China
To satisfy the adaptability of forecasting the short-term and abrupt volume of the initial metro network, we build the multiple enter linear regression (MELR) model to explore the determinants and forecast the intensity during the twice expansion of the initial metro network in Xi’an. We further com...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2842949 |
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| _version_ | 1832553561698861056 |
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| author | Tao Lyu Mingfei Xu Jia Zhang Yuanqing Wang Liu Yang Yanan Gao |
| author_facet | Tao Lyu Mingfei Xu Jia Zhang Yuanqing Wang Liu Yang Yanan Gao |
| author_sort | Tao Lyu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To satisfy the adaptability of forecasting the short-term and abrupt volume of the initial metro network, we build the multiple enter linear regression (MELR) model to explore the determinants and forecast the intensity during the twice expansion of the initial metro network in Xi’an. We further compare the prediction of the metro transport capacity between the MELR models with exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Results show that the passenger intensity significantly fluctuates with the months and days, and MELR model is more adapted for the short-term prediction of the abrupt volume than the ARIMA model during the new metro line opening and the old line expands, which avoids the drawback of time series models that need a huge database. This study provides a guide for the prediction of initial metro network volume and accurate purchase of the rail vehicles during the metro planning and expends stages. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a17b60e71b8c43d1ad370a703dbfceef |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2042-3195 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-a17b60e71b8c43d1ad370a703dbfceef2025-02-03T05:53:49ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation2042-31952022-01-01202210.1155/2022/2842949Influential Factor Analysis and Prediction on Initial Metro Network Ridership in Xi’an, ChinaTao Lyu0Mingfei Xu1Jia Zhang2Yuanqing Wang3Liu Yang4Yanan Gao5Department of Traffic EngineeringDepartment of Traffic EngineeringXi’an Rail Transit Group Co., LtdDepartment of Traffic EngineeringDepartment of Urban PlanningDepartment of Traffic EngineeringTo satisfy the adaptability of forecasting the short-term and abrupt volume of the initial metro network, we build the multiple enter linear regression (MELR) model to explore the determinants and forecast the intensity during the twice expansion of the initial metro network in Xi’an. We further compare the prediction of the metro transport capacity between the MELR models with exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Results show that the passenger intensity significantly fluctuates with the months and days, and MELR model is more adapted for the short-term prediction of the abrupt volume than the ARIMA model during the new metro line opening and the old line expands, which avoids the drawback of time series models that need a huge database. This study provides a guide for the prediction of initial metro network volume and accurate purchase of the rail vehicles during the metro planning and expends stages.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2842949 |
| spellingShingle | Tao Lyu Mingfei Xu Jia Zhang Yuanqing Wang Liu Yang Yanan Gao Influential Factor Analysis and Prediction on Initial Metro Network Ridership in Xi’an, China Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| title | Influential Factor Analysis and Prediction on Initial Metro Network Ridership in Xi’an, China |
| title_full | Influential Factor Analysis and Prediction on Initial Metro Network Ridership in Xi’an, China |
| title_fullStr | Influential Factor Analysis and Prediction on Initial Metro Network Ridership in Xi’an, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influential Factor Analysis and Prediction on Initial Metro Network Ridership in Xi’an, China |
| title_short | Influential Factor Analysis and Prediction on Initial Metro Network Ridership in Xi’an, China |
| title_sort | influential factor analysis and prediction on initial metro network ridership in xi an china |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2842949 |
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