Future Changes in Winter‐Time Extratropical Cyclones Over South Africa From CORDEX‐CORE Simulations
Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) significantly impact mid‐latitude weather patterns and are crucial for understanding the societal implications of regional climate variability, climate change, and associated extreme weather. In this study, we examine the projected future changes in winter‐time...
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005289 |
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| author | Sandeep Chinta C. Adam Schlosser Xiang Gao Kevin Hodges |
| author_facet | Sandeep Chinta C. Adam Schlosser Xiang Gao Kevin Hodges |
| author_sort | Sandeep Chinta |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) significantly impact mid‐latitude weather patterns and are crucial for understanding the societal implications of regional climate variability, climate change, and associated extreme weather. In this study, we examine the projected future changes in winter‐time ETCs over South Africa (SA) using simulations from CORDEX‐CORE Africa. We utilized three regional climate models, each driven by three different global climate models that simulate both the current climate and a future climate experiencing strong human‐induced warming. From these, we assess changes in ETC frequency, track density, intensity, storm severity, and associated rainfall. The results indicate a significant reduction in the aggregate ETC frequency and track density, although track density is projected to increase prominently along the western coastal regions. Models show mixed trends in cyclone intensity projections, but overall results indicate weaker future cyclones, with reduced peak relative vorticity and increased minimum sea level pressure. Examining the Meteorological Storm Severity Index reveals notable regional variations in future storm severity. Average rainfall associated with ETCs is projected to decrease across SA, especially around Cape Town, highlighting a potential shift in the spatial distribution of rainfall with substantial consequences for water supply. We further investigated extreme ETCs (EETCs) and found that the trends for EETCs are generally similar to those for ETCs, with a notable decrease in frequency and regional variations in storm severity. These findings underscore the importance of developing targeted adaptation strategies to address the projected impacts of future ETCs on SA's climate and communities. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9e9744602c1c4aa2a2632c5f3c5c59e5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-9e9744602c1c4aa2a2632c5f3c5c59e52025-01-28T15:40:37ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-01-01131n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005289Future Changes in Winter‐Time Extratropical Cyclones Over South Africa From CORDEX‐CORE SimulationsSandeep Chinta0C. Adam Schlosser1Xiang Gao2Kevin Hodges3Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USACenter for Sustainability Science and Strategy Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USACenter for Sustainability Science and Strategy Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USADepartment of Meteorology National Centre of Atmospheric Science University of Reading Reading UKAbstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) significantly impact mid‐latitude weather patterns and are crucial for understanding the societal implications of regional climate variability, climate change, and associated extreme weather. In this study, we examine the projected future changes in winter‐time ETCs over South Africa (SA) using simulations from CORDEX‐CORE Africa. We utilized three regional climate models, each driven by three different global climate models that simulate both the current climate and a future climate experiencing strong human‐induced warming. From these, we assess changes in ETC frequency, track density, intensity, storm severity, and associated rainfall. The results indicate a significant reduction in the aggregate ETC frequency and track density, although track density is projected to increase prominently along the western coastal regions. Models show mixed trends in cyclone intensity projections, but overall results indicate weaker future cyclones, with reduced peak relative vorticity and increased minimum sea level pressure. Examining the Meteorological Storm Severity Index reveals notable regional variations in future storm severity. Average rainfall associated with ETCs is projected to decrease across SA, especially around Cape Town, highlighting a potential shift in the spatial distribution of rainfall with substantial consequences for water supply. We further investigated extreme ETCs (EETCs) and found that the trends for EETCs are generally similar to those for ETCs, with a notable decrease in frequency and regional variations in storm severity. These findings underscore the importance of developing targeted adaptation strategies to address the projected impacts of future ETCs on SA's climate and communities.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005289extratropical cyclonesCORDEX‐CORE AfricaSouth Africaclimate changefuture changesstorm severity |
| spellingShingle | Sandeep Chinta C. Adam Schlosser Xiang Gao Kevin Hodges Future Changes in Winter‐Time Extratropical Cyclones Over South Africa From CORDEX‐CORE Simulations Earth's Future extratropical cyclones CORDEX‐CORE Africa South Africa climate change future changes storm severity |
| title | Future Changes in Winter‐Time Extratropical Cyclones Over South Africa From CORDEX‐CORE Simulations |
| title_full | Future Changes in Winter‐Time Extratropical Cyclones Over South Africa From CORDEX‐CORE Simulations |
| title_fullStr | Future Changes in Winter‐Time Extratropical Cyclones Over South Africa From CORDEX‐CORE Simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Changes in Winter‐Time Extratropical Cyclones Over South Africa From CORDEX‐CORE Simulations |
| title_short | Future Changes in Winter‐Time Extratropical Cyclones Over South Africa From CORDEX‐CORE Simulations |
| title_sort | future changes in winter time extratropical cyclones over south africa from cordex core simulations |
| topic | extratropical cyclones CORDEX‐CORE Africa South Africa climate change future changes storm severity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005289 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sandeepchinta futurechangesinwintertimeextratropicalcyclonesoversouthafricafromcordexcoresimulations AT cadamschlosser futurechangesinwintertimeextratropicalcyclonesoversouthafricafromcordexcoresimulations AT xianggao futurechangesinwintertimeextratropicalcyclonesoversouthafricafromcordexcoresimulations AT kevinhodges futurechangesinwintertimeextratropicalcyclonesoversouthafricafromcordexcoresimulations |