Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic: Local transportation and social distancing explain the different 'waves' of A-H1N1pdm cases observed in México during 2009
Influenza outbreaks have been of relatively limited historical interest in México. The 2009 influenza pandemic not only changed México's health priorities but also brought to the forefront some of the strengths and weaknesses of México's epidemiological surveillance and public health...
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| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2010-12-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2011.8.21 |
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| author | Marco Arieli Herrera-Valdez Maytee Cruz-Aponte Carlos Castillo-Chavez |
| author_facet | Marco Arieli Herrera-Valdez Maytee Cruz-Aponte Carlos Castillo-Chavez |
| author_sort | Marco Arieli Herrera-Valdez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Influenza outbreaks have been of relatively limited historical interest in México. The 2009 influenza pandemic not only changed México's health priorities but also brought to the forefront some of the strengths and weaknesses of México's epidemiological surveillance and public health system. A year later, México's data show an epidemic pattern characterized by three 'waves''. The reasons this three-wave patterns are theoretically investigated via models that incorporate México's general trends of land transportation, public health measures, and the regular opening and closing of schools during 2009. The role of vaccination is also studied taking into account delays in access and limitations in the total and daily numbers of vaccines available. The research in this article supports the view that the thee epidemic 'waves' are the result of the synergistic interactions of three factors: regional movement patterns of Mexicans, the impact and effectiveness of dramatic social distancing measures imposed during the first outbreak, and the summer release of school children followed by their subsequent return to classes in the fall. The three 'waves' cannot be explained by the transportation patterns alone but only through the combination of transport patterns and changes in contact rates due to the use of explicit or scheduled social distancing measures. The research identifies possible vaccination schemes that account for the school calendar and whose effectiveness are enhanced by social distancing measures. The limited impact of the late arrival of the vaccine is also analyzed. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9d26f5dfb1ff48bca2639a96a4e55158 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2010-12-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-9d26f5dfb1ff48bca2639a96a4e551582025-01-24T02:01:20ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182010-12-0181214810.3934/mbe.2011.8.21Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic: Local transportation and social distancing explain the different 'waves' of A-H1N1pdm cases observed in México during 2009Marco Arieli Herrera-Valdez0Maytee Cruz-Aponte1Carlos Castillo-Chavez2Mathematical, Computational, and Modeling Sciences Center, Physical Sciences A, P.O. Box, 871904, Tempe, AZ 85287-1904Mathematical, Computational, and Modeling Sciences Center, Physical Sciences A, P.O. Box, 871904, Tempe, AZ 85287-1904Mathematical, Computational, and Modeling Sciences Center, Physical Sciences A, P.O. Box, 871904, Tempe, AZ 85287-1904Influenza outbreaks have been of relatively limited historical interest in México. The 2009 influenza pandemic not only changed México's health priorities but also brought to the forefront some of the strengths and weaknesses of México's epidemiological surveillance and public health system. A year later, México's data show an epidemic pattern characterized by three 'waves''. The reasons this three-wave patterns are theoretically investigated via models that incorporate México's general trends of land transportation, public health measures, and the regular opening and closing of schools during 2009. The role of vaccination is also studied taking into account delays in access and limitations in the total and daily numbers of vaccines available. The research in this article supports the view that the thee epidemic 'waves' are the result of the synergistic interactions of three factors: regional movement patterns of Mexicans, the impact and effectiveness of dramatic social distancing measures imposed during the first outbreak, and the summer release of school children followed by their subsequent return to classes in the fall. The three 'waves' cannot be explained by the transportation patterns alone but only through the combination of transport patterns and changes in contact rates due to the use of explicit or scheduled social distancing measures. The research identifies possible vaccination schemes that account for the school calendar and whose effectiveness are enhanced by social distancing measures. The limited impact of the late arrival of the vaccine is also analyzed.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2011.8.21influenzalocal transportationmultiwave epidemics.social distancing |
| spellingShingle | Marco Arieli Herrera-Valdez Maytee Cruz-Aponte Carlos Castillo-Chavez Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic: Local transportation and social distancing explain the different 'waves' of A-H1N1pdm cases observed in México during 2009 Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering influenza local transportation multiwave epidemics. social distancing |
| title | Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic: Local transportation and social distancing explain the different 'waves' of A-H1N1pdm cases observed in México during 2009 |
| title_full | Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic: Local transportation and social distancing explain the different 'waves' of A-H1N1pdm cases observed in México during 2009 |
| title_fullStr | Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic: Local transportation and social distancing explain the different 'waves' of A-H1N1pdm cases observed in México during 2009 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic: Local transportation and social distancing explain the different 'waves' of A-H1N1pdm cases observed in México during 2009 |
| title_short | Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic: Local transportation and social distancing explain the different 'waves' of A-H1N1pdm cases observed in México during 2009 |
| title_sort | multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic local transportation and social distancing explain the different waves of a h1n1pdm cases observed in mexico during 2009 |
| topic | influenza local transportation multiwave epidemics. social distancing |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2011.8.21 |
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