Post-Recession Recovery in US Air Transport: Forecasting with a Temporal Causal Model
This study examines the causal relationship between air transport demand and socio-economic indicators, with a focus on post-recession recovery dynamics. Using monthly data from 1990 to 2022, the research explores causality between air transport indicators and socio-economic indicators, based on whi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Aerospace |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/12/1/40 |
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| author | Maja Ozmec-Ban Ružica Škurla Babić Vladimir Vasić Dajana Bartulović |
| author_facet | Maja Ozmec-Ban Ružica Škurla Babić Vladimir Vasić Dajana Bartulović |
| author_sort | Maja Ozmec-Ban |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study examines the causal relationship between air transport demand and socio-economic indicators, with a focus on post-recession recovery dynamics. Using monthly data from 1990 to 2022, the research explores causality between air transport indicators and socio-economic indicators, based on which a temporal causal model for forecasting is created. A temporal causal model, integrating air transport and socio-economic metrics, is introduced to improve passenger air transport forecasting. Forecasted values from the temporal causal model and an ARIMA model were compared with actual realized traffic to assess the quality and accuracy of the models. Based on the comparison, the temporal causal model enables instant analysis of circumstances and causes in dynamic environments, as well as reliable forecasting of upcoming intermediate periods. This research contributes to airlines and other air transport stakeholders by delivering a reliable short-term forecasting tool for informed decision-making and sustainable growth. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9a9ebf58946d4c9a88d772a919bbb710 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2226-4310 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Aerospace |
| spelling | doaj-art-9a9ebf58946d4c9a88d772a919bbb7102025-01-24T13:15:34ZengMDPI AGAerospace2226-43102025-01-011214010.3390/aerospace12010040Post-Recession Recovery in US Air Transport: Forecasting with a Temporal Causal ModelMaja Ozmec-Ban0Ružica Škurla Babić1Vladimir Vasić2Dajana Bartulović3University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Vukelićeva 4, 10000 Zagreb, CroatiaUniversity of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Vukelićeva 4, 10000 Zagreb, CroatiaFaculty of Banking, Insurance and Finance, Union University, Zmaj Jovina 12, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaUniversity of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Vukelićeva 4, 10000 Zagreb, CroatiaThis study examines the causal relationship between air transport demand and socio-economic indicators, with a focus on post-recession recovery dynamics. Using monthly data from 1990 to 2022, the research explores causality between air transport indicators and socio-economic indicators, based on which a temporal causal model for forecasting is created. A temporal causal model, integrating air transport and socio-economic metrics, is introduced to improve passenger air transport forecasting. Forecasted values from the temporal causal model and an ARIMA model were compared with actual realized traffic to assess the quality and accuracy of the models. Based on the comparison, the temporal causal model enables instant analysis of circumstances and causes in dynamic environments, as well as reliable forecasting of upcoming intermediate periods. This research contributes to airlines and other air transport stakeholders by delivering a reliable short-term forecasting tool for informed decision-making and sustainable growth.https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/12/1/40air transport demandforecasting demandtemporal causal modelingairline business |
| spellingShingle | Maja Ozmec-Ban Ružica Škurla Babić Vladimir Vasić Dajana Bartulović Post-Recession Recovery in US Air Transport: Forecasting with a Temporal Causal Model Aerospace air transport demand forecasting demand temporal causal modeling airline business |
| title | Post-Recession Recovery in US Air Transport: Forecasting with a Temporal Causal Model |
| title_full | Post-Recession Recovery in US Air Transport: Forecasting with a Temporal Causal Model |
| title_fullStr | Post-Recession Recovery in US Air Transport: Forecasting with a Temporal Causal Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Post-Recession Recovery in US Air Transport: Forecasting with a Temporal Causal Model |
| title_short | Post-Recession Recovery in US Air Transport: Forecasting with a Temporal Causal Model |
| title_sort | post recession recovery in us air transport forecasting with a temporal causal model |
| topic | air transport demand forecasting demand temporal causal modeling airline business |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/12/1/40 |
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