Development and Validation of a Simple Model to Predict the Risk of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer on Screening Total Body Skin Examination
Objective. There is insufficient evidence to generate skin cancer screening guidelines at the population level, resulting in arbitrary variation in patient selection for screening skin examinations. This study was aimed at developing an easy-to-use predictive model of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC)...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Dermatology Research and Practice |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2313896 |
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| author | Rebecca I. Hartman Yun Xue Ryan Karmouta Elizabeth Tkachenko Sara J. Li David G. Li Cara Joyce Arash Mostaghimi |
| author_facet | Rebecca I. Hartman Yun Xue Ryan Karmouta Elizabeth Tkachenko Sara J. Li David G. Li Cara Joyce Arash Mostaghimi |
| author_sort | Rebecca I. Hartman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective. There is insufficient evidence to generate skin cancer screening guidelines at the population level, resulting in arbitrary variation in patient selection for screening skin examinations. This study was aimed at developing an easy-to-use predictive model of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) risk on screening total body skin examination (TBSE). Methods. This epidemiologic assessment utilized data from a prospective, multicenter international study from primarily academic outpatient dermatology clinics. Potential predictors of NMSC on screening TBSE were identified and used to generate a multivariable model that was converted into a point-based scoring system. The performance characteristics of the model were validated in a second data set from two healthcare institutions in the United States. Results. 8,501 patients were included. Statistically significant predictors of NMSC on screening TBSE included age, skin phototype, and history of NMSC. A multivariable model and point-based scoring system using these predictors exhibited high discrimination (AUC = 0.82). Conclusion. A simple three-variable model, abbreviated as CAP (cancer history, age, phototype) can accurately predict the risk of NMSC on screening TBSE by dermatology. This tool may be used in clinical decision making to enhance the yield of screening TBSE. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-96fcdd4d534842b1878a52851fc8f1f7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-6113 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Dermatology Research and Practice |
| spelling | doaj-art-96fcdd4d534842b1878a52851fc8f1f72025-02-03T06:11:51ZengWileyDermatology Research and Practice1687-61132022-01-01202210.1155/2022/2313896Development and Validation of a Simple Model to Predict the Risk of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer on Screening Total Body Skin ExaminationRebecca I. Hartman0Yun Xue1Ryan Karmouta2Elizabeth Tkachenko3Sara J. Li4David G. Li5Cara Joyce6Arash Mostaghimi7Department of DermatologyHarvard Combined Dermatology Residency Training ProgramCambridge Health Alliance Internal Medicine Residency Training ProgramDepartment of DermatologyDepartment of DermatologyHarvard Combined Dermatology Residency Training ProgramDepartment of Public Health SciencesDepartment of DermatologyObjective. There is insufficient evidence to generate skin cancer screening guidelines at the population level, resulting in arbitrary variation in patient selection for screening skin examinations. This study was aimed at developing an easy-to-use predictive model of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) risk on screening total body skin examination (TBSE). Methods. This epidemiologic assessment utilized data from a prospective, multicenter international study from primarily academic outpatient dermatology clinics. Potential predictors of NMSC on screening TBSE were identified and used to generate a multivariable model that was converted into a point-based scoring system. The performance characteristics of the model were validated in a second data set from two healthcare institutions in the United States. Results. 8,501 patients were included. Statistically significant predictors of NMSC on screening TBSE included age, skin phototype, and history of NMSC. A multivariable model and point-based scoring system using these predictors exhibited high discrimination (AUC = 0.82). Conclusion. A simple three-variable model, abbreviated as CAP (cancer history, age, phototype) can accurately predict the risk of NMSC on screening TBSE by dermatology. This tool may be used in clinical decision making to enhance the yield of screening TBSE.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2313896 |
| spellingShingle | Rebecca I. Hartman Yun Xue Ryan Karmouta Elizabeth Tkachenko Sara J. Li David G. Li Cara Joyce Arash Mostaghimi Development and Validation of a Simple Model to Predict the Risk of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer on Screening Total Body Skin Examination Dermatology Research and Practice |
| title | Development and Validation of a Simple Model to Predict the Risk of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer on Screening Total Body Skin Examination |
| title_full | Development and Validation of a Simple Model to Predict the Risk of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer on Screening Total Body Skin Examination |
| title_fullStr | Development and Validation of a Simple Model to Predict the Risk of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer on Screening Total Body Skin Examination |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and Validation of a Simple Model to Predict the Risk of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer on Screening Total Body Skin Examination |
| title_short | Development and Validation of a Simple Model to Predict the Risk of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer on Screening Total Body Skin Examination |
| title_sort | development and validation of a simple model to predict the risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer on screening total body skin examination |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2313896 |
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