Evaluation of crop and pond-deepening adaptations to climate change in saline coastal Bangladesh: Benefit-cost and risk analysis
This study estimates the irrigation water requirement and irrigation water productivity (IWP) of dry-season crops across various sowing dates, and assesses the economic viability of different potential adaptation options. Our findings indicate that current farming practices require 25–48 % more irri...
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Agricultural Water Management |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424006103 |
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| author | Md. Jahangir Kabir Donald S. Gaydon Rob Cramb |
| author_facet | Md. Jahangir Kabir Donald S. Gaydon Rob Cramb |
| author_sort | Md. Jahangir Kabir |
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| description | This study estimates the irrigation water requirement and irrigation water productivity (IWP) of dry-season crops across various sowing dates, and assesses the economic viability of different potential adaptation options. Our findings indicate that current farming practices require 25–48 % more irrigation water for non-rice grain crops, while optimal approaches and government recommendations (BARI/BRRI) lead to more efficient water utilization. IWP of potential DS crops following optimum sowing increased by 89–433 % under the current conditions and by 28–158 % under future conditions, compared to farmers’ practices. Notably, achieving a higher grain yield per hectare does not always correspond to higher economic returns from the limited freshwater supply across crops. Our cost-benefit analysis (BCA) reveals a positive net present value (NPV, ranging from BDT 23,750–91,167) and favourable cost-benefit ratios (BCR > 1, ranging from 2.4 to 5.6 BDT over a seven-year period) for investments in deepening home-yard ponds for aquaculture and dry-season cropping across various sowing and transplanting options across farm types. Risk analysis results have confirmed that in the 80th percentile, every BDT spent on pond deepening for aquaculture and rice and non-rice dry-season crop cultivation returns between 2.8 and 9.8 BDT across farm types. We recommend diversifying crops using the optimal sowing/transplanting options, alongside enhancing on-farm water storage since the optimal sowing option efficiently uses scarce freshwater and consistently performs better, and as a result, it has a more suitable window for sowing crops in saline coastal soil. This approach ensures increased farm income and mitigates risks associated with environmental stress challenges. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8d52deaa82694e3db389c7df402310e0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1873-2283 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Water Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-8d52deaa82694e3db389c7df402310e02025-01-25T04:10:42ZengElsevierAgricultural Water Management1873-22832025-03-01308109274Evaluation of crop and pond-deepening adaptations to climate change in saline coastal Bangladesh: Benefit-cost and risk analysisMd. Jahangir Kabir0Donald S. Gaydon1Rob Cramb2Economics Team, Grains Research and Development Corporation, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia; School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, AustraliaSchool of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia; CSIRO Agriculture & Food, Brisbane, QLD 4102, Australia; Corresponding author at: School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia.School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, AustraliaThis study estimates the irrigation water requirement and irrigation water productivity (IWP) of dry-season crops across various sowing dates, and assesses the economic viability of different potential adaptation options. Our findings indicate that current farming practices require 25–48 % more irrigation water for non-rice grain crops, while optimal approaches and government recommendations (BARI/BRRI) lead to more efficient water utilization. IWP of potential DS crops following optimum sowing increased by 89–433 % under the current conditions and by 28–158 % under future conditions, compared to farmers’ practices. Notably, achieving a higher grain yield per hectare does not always correspond to higher economic returns from the limited freshwater supply across crops. Our cost-benefit analysis (BCA) reveals a positive net present value (NPV, ranging from BDT 23,750–91,167) and favourable cost-benefit ratios (BCR > 1, ranging from 2.4 to 5.6 BDT over a seven-year period) for investments in deepening home-yard ponds for aquaculture and dry-season cropping across various sowing and transplanting options across farm types. Risk analysis results have confirmed that in the 80th percentile, every BDT spent on pond deepening for aquaculture and rice and non-rice dry-season crop cultivation returns between 2.8 and 9.8 BDT across farm types. We recommend diversifying crops using the optimal sowing/transplanting options, alongside enhancing on-farm water storage since the optimal sowing option efficiently uses scarce freshwater and consistently performs better, and as a result, it has a more suitable window for sowing crops in saline coastal soil. This approach ensures increased farm income and mitigates risks associated with environmental stress challenges.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424006103Climate changeSalinityAdaptationIrrigation water productivityBenefit-Cost AnalysisRisk Analysis |
| spellingShingle | Md. Jahangir Kabir Donald S. Gaydon Rob Cramb Evaluation of crop and pond-deepening adaptations to climate change in saline coastal Bangladesh: Benefit-cost and risk analysis Agricultural Water Management Climate change Salinity Adaptation Irrigation water productivity Benefit-Cost Analysis Risk Analysis |
| title | Evaluation of crop and pond-deepening adaptations to climate change in saline coastal Bangladesh: Benefit-cost and risk analysis |
| title_full | Evaluation of crop and pond-deepening adaptations to climate change in saline coastal Bangladesh: Benefit-cost and risk analysis |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of crop and pond-deepening adaptations to climate change in saline coastal Bangladesh: Benefit-cost and risk analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of crop and pond-deepening adaptations to climate change in saline coastal Bangladesh: Benefit-cost and risk analysis |
| title_short | Evaluation of crop and pond-deepening adaptations to climate change in saline coastal Bangladesh: Benefit-cost and risk analysis |
| title_sort | evaluation of crop and pond deepening adaptations to climate change in saline coastal bangladesh benefit cost and risk analysis |
| topic | Climate change Salinity Adaptation Irrigation water productivity Benefit-Cost Analysis Risk Analysis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424006103 |
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