Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
<p>Many areas across the globe rely for their precipitation supply on terrestrial precipitation recycling, which is the amount of precipitation that has evaporated from upwind land areas. Global warming and land-use changes may affect the future patterns of terrestrial precipitation recycling,...
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| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/215/2025/esd-16-215-2025.pdf |
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| author | A. Staal P. Meijer P. Meijer M. K. Nyasulu M. K. Nyasulu M. K. Nyasulu O. A. Tuinenburg S. C. Dekker |
| author_facet | A. Staal P. Meijer P. Meijer M. K. Nyasulu M. K. Nyasulu M. K. Nyasulu O. A. Tuinenburg S. C. Dekker |
| author_sort | A. Staal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Many areas across the globe rely for their precipitation supply on terrestrial precipitation recycling, which is the amount of precipitation that has evaporated from upwind land areas. Global warming and land-use changes may affect the future patterns of terrestrial precipitation recycling, but where and to which extent remains unclear. To study how the global patterns of precipitation recycling may change until the end of the 21st century, we present a new forward-tracking version of the three-dimensional atmospheric moisture-tracking model UTrack that is forced by output of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2). We simulate global precipitation recycling in four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) which are internally consistent combinations of climate and land-use scenarios used in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The scenarios range from mild to severe, namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. We compare results for the middle of the century (2050–2059) and the end of the century (2090–2099) with a 2015–2024 baseline. We also calculate basin precipitation recycling for the 26 major river basins of the world. We find that the global terrestrial precipitation recycling ratio decreases with the severity of the SSPs and estimate a decrease in this ratio of 1.5 % with every degree of global warming. However, we find differences among regions and river basins in trends in precipitation recycling and whether projected drying or wetting is mainly contributed by land or ocean. Our results give critical insight into the relative contributions of global warming and land-use changes on global precipitation changes over the course of this century. In addition, our model paves the way for more detailed regional studies of future changes in terrestrial moisture recycling.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8144492d7768406d933a8ac2eb233cdc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj-art-8144492d7768406d933a8ac2eb233cdc2025-01-30T12:39:22ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872025-01-011621523810.5194/esd-16-215-2025Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic PathwaysA. Staal0P. Meijer1P. Meijer2M. K. Nyasulu3M. K. Nyasulu4M. K. Nyasulu5O. A. Tuinenburg6S. C. Dekker7Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, the NetherlandsCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, the NetherlandsNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment, 3721 MA Bilthoven, the NetherlandsStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, SwedenPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyBolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, SwedenCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, the NetherlandsCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, the Netherlands<p>Many areas across the globe rely for their precipitation supply on terrestrial precipitation recycling, which is the amount of precipitation that has evaporated from upwind land areas. Global warming and land-use changes may affect the future patterns of terrestrial precipitation recycling, but where and to which extent remains unclear. To study how the global patterns of precipitation recycling may change until the end of the 21st century, we present a new forward-tracking version of the three-dimensional atmospheric moisture-tracking model UTrack that is forced by output of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2). We simulate global precipitation recycling in four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) which are internally consistent combinations of climate and land-use scenarios used in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The scenarios range from mild to severe, namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. We compare results for the middle of the century (2050–2059) and the end of the century (2090–2099) with a 2015–2024 baseline. We also calculate basin precipitation recycling for the 26 major river basins of the world. We find that the global terrestrial precipitation recycling ratio decreases with the severity of the SSPs and estimate a decrease in this ratio of 1.5 % with every degree of global warming. However, we find differences among regions and river basins in trends in precipitation recycling and whether projected drying or wetting is mainly contributed by land or ocean. Our results give critical insight into the relative contributions of global warming and land-use changes on global precipitation changes over the course of this century. In addition, our model paves the way for more detailed regional studies of future changes in terrestrial moisture recycling.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/215/2025/esd-16-215-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | A. Staal P. Meijer P. Meijer M. K. Nyasulu M. K. Nyasulu M. K. Nyasulu O. A. Tuinenburg S. C. Dekker Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
| title_full | Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
| title_fullStr | Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
| title_short | Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
| title_sort | global terrestrial moisture recycling in shared socioeconomic pathways |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/215/2025/esd-16-215-2025.pdf |
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