The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards
Abstract Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), t...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024-10-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76749-4 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832594700078415872 |
|---|---|
| author | Jennifer A. Thomas Patrick L. Barnard Sean Vitousek Li H. Erikson Kai Parker Kees Nederhoff Kevin M. Befus Manoochehr Shirzaei |
| author_facet | Jennifer A. Thomas Patrick L. Barnard Sean Vitousek Li H. Erikson Kai Parker Kees Nederhoff Kevin M. Befus Manoochehr Shirzaei |
| author_sort | Jennifer A. Thomas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR, 47% of current subaerial barrier island area would be flooded daily, and the 1-year return period storm would flood 74%. For 20-year return period storms, over 85% is projected to be flooded for any SLR. The modelled groundwater table is already shallow (< 2 m deep), and while projected to shoal to the land surface with SLR, marine flooding is projected to overtake areas with emergent groundwater. Projected shoreline retreat reaches an average of 178 m with 1 m of SLR and no interventions, which is over 60% of the current island width at narrower locations. Compounding these hazards is subsidence, with one-third of the study area currently lowering at > 2 mm/yr. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of managing natural barrier systems such as those managed by federal park systems tasked with maintaining natural ecosystems and protecting cultural resources. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7ee5f779bd6d450b8089c55c647d3586 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-7ee5f779bd6d450b8089c55c647d35862025-01-19T12:24:41ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-10-0114111610.1038/s41598-024-76749-4The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazardsJennifer A. Thomas0Patrick L. Barnard1Sean Vitousek2Li H. Erikson3Kai Parker4Kees Nederhoff5Kevin M. Befus6Manoochehr Shirzaei7Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological SurveyPacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological SurveyPacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological SurveyPacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological SurveyPacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological SurveyDeltares USADepartment of Geosciences, University of ArkansasDepartment of Geosciences, Virginia TechAbstract Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR, 47% of current subaerial barrier island area would be flooded daily, and the 1-year return period storm would flood 74%. For 20-year return period storms, over 85% is projected to be flooded for any SLR. The modelled groundwater table is already shallow (< 2 m deep), and while projected to shoal to the land surface with SLR, marine flooding is projected to overtake areas with emergent groundwater. Projected shoreline retreat reaches an average of 178 m with 1 m of SLR and no interventions, which is over 60% of the current island width at narrower locations. Compounding these hazards is subsidence, with one-third of the study area currently lowering at > 2 mm/yr. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of managing natural barrier systems such as those managed by federal park systems tasked with maintaining natural ecosystems and protecting cultural resources.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76749-4 |
| spellingShingle | Jennifer A. Thomas Patrick L. Barnard Sean Vitousek Li H. Erikson Kai Parker Kees Nederhoff Kevin M. Befus Manoochehr Shirzaei The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards Scientific Reports |
| title | The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards |
| title_full | The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards |
| title_fullStr | The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards |
| title_full_unstemmed | The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards |
| title_short | The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards |
| title_sort | projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate driven coastal hazards |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76749-4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jenniferathomas theprojectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT patricklbarnard theprojectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT seanvitousek theprojectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT liherikson theprojectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT kaiparker theprojectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT keesnederhoff theprojectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT kevinmbefus theprojectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT manoochehrshirzaei theprojectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT jenniferathomas projectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT patricklbarnard projectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT seanvitousek projectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT liherikson projectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT kaiparker projectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT keesnederhoff projectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT kevinmbefus projectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards AT manoochehrshirzaei projectedexposureandresponseofanaturalbarrierislandsystemtoclimatedrivencoastalhazards |