Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria
Most of the Bulgarian rural municipalities need to back up their investment decisions in tourism infrastructure by preliminary analysis and forecasts. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of Algarve, ESGHT/CINTURS
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Tourism & Management Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/545/915 |
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| Summary: | Most of the Bulgarian rural municipalities need to back up their
investment decisions in tourism infrastructure by preliminary
analysis and forecasts. The present paper regards several major
problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the
purpose of the long-run forecasting for the needs of the mountainous
municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria, such as: (i) the problem of
determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”;
(ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of
short-run and long-run forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the
results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the
forecasts. A specially designed model for estimation of the weight
coefficient needed for determining the size of the rural tourism and
ecotourism sectors of this very same municipality, located near
Bulgaria’s border with Greece and Turkey, is being presented. |
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| ISSN: | 2182-8466 |