Nomogram models for predicting outcomes in thyroid cancer patients with distant metastasis receiving 131iodine therapy
Abstract This study aimed to establish and validate prognostic nomogram models for patients who underwent 131I therapy for thyroid cancer with distant metastases. The cohort was divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets for nomogram development. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86169-7 |
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| author | Shui Jin Xuemei Ye Ting Ye Xinyu Chen Jianfeng Ji Jinyu Wang Xin Zhu Xiaochun Mao Takahiro Higuchi Heqing Yi |
| author_facet | Shui Jin Xuemei Ye Ting Ye Xinyu Chen Jianfeng Ji Jinyu Wang Xin Zhu Xiaochun Mao Takahiro Higuchi Heqing Yi |
| author_sort | Shui Jin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study aimed to establish and validate prognostic nomogram models for patients who underwent 131I therapy for thyroid cancer with distant metastases. The cohort was divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets for nomogram development. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Nomograms were developed based on these predictors, and Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed for validation. Among 451 patients who were screened, 412 met the inclusion criteria and were followed-up for a median duration of 65.2 months. The training and validation sets included 288 and 124 patients, respectively. Pathological type, first 131I administrated activity, and lesion 131I uptake in lesions were independent predictors for PFS. For OS, predictors included gender, age, metastasis site, first 131I administrated activity, 131I uptake, pulmonary lesion size, and stimulated thyroglobulin levels. These predictors were used to construct nomograms for predicting PFS and OS. Low-risk patients had significantly longer PFS and OS compared to high-risk patients, with 10-year PFS rates of 81.1% vs. 51.9% and 10-year OS rates of 86.2% vs. 37.4%. These may aid individualized prognostic assessment and clinical decision-making, especially in determining the prescribed activity for the first 131I treatment. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7a47b959ac1c48a78aae0d5db996804d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-7a47b959ac1c48a78aae0d5db996804d2025-01-26T12:23:39ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115111110.1038/s41598-025-86169-7Nomogram models for predicting outcomes in thyroid cancer patients with distant metastasis receiving 131iodine therapyShui Jin0Xuemei Ye1Ting Ye2Xinyu Chen3Jianfeng Ji4Jinyu Wang5Xin Zhu6Xiaochun Mao7Takahiro Higuchi8Heqing Yi9Department of Nuclear Medicine, Zhejiang Cancer HospitalDepartment of Nuclear Medicine, Zhejiang Cancer HospitalDepartment of Nuclear Medicine, Zhejiang Cancer HospitalNuclear Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of AugsburgDepartment of Nuclear Medicine, Zhejiang Cancer HospitalMedical records and statistics office, Zhejiang Cancer HospitalKey Laboratory of Head and Neck Cancer Translational Research of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang Cancer HospitalDepartment of Thyroid Surgery, Zhejiang Cancer HospitalDepartment of Nuclear Medicine and Comprehensive Heart Failure Center, University Hospital WürzburgDepartment of Nuclear Medicine, Zhejiang Cancer HospitalAbstract This study aimed to establish and validate prognostic nomogram models for patients who underwent 131I therapy for thyroid cancer with distant metastases. The cohort was divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets for nomogram development. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Nomograms were developed based on these predictors, and Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed for validation. Among 451 patients who were screened, 412 met the inclusion criteria and were followed-up for a median duration of 65.2 months. The training and validation sets included 288 and 124 patients, respectively. Pathological type, first 131I administrated activity, and lesion 131I uptake in lesions were independent predictors for PFS. For OS, predictors included gender, age, metastasis site, first 131I administrated activity, 131I uptake, pulmonary lesion size, and stimulated thyroglobulin levels. These predictors were used to construct nomograms for predicting PFS and OS. Low-risk patients had significantly longer PFS and OS compared to high-risk patients, with 10-year PFS rates of 81.1% vs. 51.9% and 10-year OS rates of 86.2% vs. 37.4%. These may aid individualized prognostic assessment and clinical decision-making, especially in determining the prescribed activity for the first 131I treatment.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86169-7131iodineActivityDistant metastasisIodine radioisotopesThyroid cancer |
| spellingShingle | Shui Jin Xuemei Ye Ting Ye Xinyu Chen Jianfeng Ji Jinyu Wang Xin Zhu Xiaochun Mao Takahiro Higuchi Heqing Yi Nomogram models for predicting outcomes in thyroid cancer patients with distant metastasis receiving 131iodine therapy Scientific Reports 131iodine Activity Distant metastasis Iodine radioisotopes Thyroid cancer |
| title | Nomogram models for predicting outcomes in thyroid cancer patients with distant metastasis receiving 131iodine therapy |
| title_full | Nomogram models for predicting outcomes in thyroid cancer patients with distant metastasis receiving 131iodine therapy |
| title_fullStr | Nomogram models for predicting outcomes in thyroid cancer patients with distant metastasis receiving 131iodine therapy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nomogram models for predicting outcomes in thyroid cancer patients with distant metastasis receiving 131iodine therapy |
| title_short | Nomogram models for predicting outcomes in thyroid cancer patients with distant metastasis receiving 131iodine therapy |
| title_sort | nomogram models for predicting outcomes in thyroid cancer patients with distant metastasis receiving 131iodine therapy |
| topic | 131iodine Activity Distant metastasis Iodine radioisotopes Thyroid cancer |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86169-7 |
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