Dynamic Interrelation between Aggregated Revenues and Expenditures of Regional-Level Budgets of Federal States: A Time-Frequency Approach to Analysis
Objective: The article analyzes the dynamic (time-frequency) relationship between aggregate budget expenditures and revenues of the federal constituent entities, considering four competing theoretical hypotheses: “expenditures-revenues”; “revenues-expenditures”; “fiscal synchronization”; and “fisca...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Qubahan
2024-07-01
|
| Series: | Qubahan Academic Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journal.qubahan.com/index.php/qaj/article/view/549 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832544553475768320 |
|---|---|
| author | Alan K. Karaev Oksana S. Gorlova Vadim V. Ponkratov Margarita L. Vasyunina Andrey I. Masterov Hongor N. Zambaev Lolita H. Gueva |
| author_facet | Alan K. Karaev Oksana S. Gorlova Vadim V. Ponkratov Margarita L. Vasyunina Andrey I. Masterov Hongor N. Zambaev Lolita H. Gueva |
| author_sort | Alan K. Karaev |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Objective: The article analyzes the dynamic (time-frequency) relationship between aggregate budget expenditures and revenues of the federal constituent entities, considering four competing theoretical hypotheses: “expenditures-revenues”; “revenues-expenditures”; “fiscal synchronization”; and “fiscal neutrality”, over time (2013:12÷2023:03). Method: The study was conducted using wavelet coherence analysis, which made it possible to separate short-term, medium-term and long-term effects in the dynamic dependence of the analyzed variables, and identify the direction and intensity of this relationship. Finding: The research results indicate the existence of all four relationships between aggregated budget revenues and expenditures of the federal constituent entities for various time periods, on different time scales, throughout the entire observation time interval (2013:12÷2023:03). These findings demonstrate that, to a greater extent, the budgets of the federal constituent entities are characterized by the presence of a dynamic relationship between aggregated revenues and expenditures in the following modes: “revenues-expenditures” (when revenues are ahead of expenditures) and “expenditures-revenues” (when expenditures are ahead of revenues). In addition, the time scale and time range of the emergence of the “fiscal synchronization” and “fiscal neutrality” modes in the relationship between aggregated revenues and expenditures of the federal constituent entities are determined. Implication: The results obtained provide a possible explanation for the contradictory results of numerous studies based on traditional methods and empirical observations over different historical periods, since each of these methods only partially explains a particular mode of the dynamic relationship between revenues and expenditures. The theoretical significance of the study lies in the substantiation that continuous wavelet analysis is a powerful tool for studying the nonlinear relationship between revenues and expenditures, since understanding the causalities between revenues and expenditures on various time scales is significant for choosing measures aimed at maintaining the budget sustainability of the federal constituent entities. The practical significance of the research results is determined by the fact that they can be an essential starting point for determining the necessary fiscal policy measures aimed at increasing the budget sustainability of the federal constituent entities.
|
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-720a8a7580e24bd18fb48d1df4f712c5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2709-8206 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Qubahan |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Qubahan Academic Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-720a8a7580e24bd18fb48d1df4f712c52025-02-03T10:11:51ZengQubahanQubahan Academic Journal2709-82062024-07-014310.48161/qaj.v4n3a549549Dynamic Interrelation between Aggregated Revenues and Expenditures of Regional-Level Budgets of Federal States: A Time-Frequency Approach to AnalysisAlan K. Karaev 0Oksana S. Gorlova 1Vadim V. Ponkratov2Margarita L. Vasyunina 3Andrey I. Masterov 4Hongor N. Zambaev5Lolita H. Gueva 6Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian FederationFinancial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian FederationFinancial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian FederationFinancial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian FederationFinancial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian FederationFinancial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian FederationFinancial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation Objective: The article analyzes the dynamic (time-frequency) relationship between aggregate budget expenditures and revenues of the federal constituent entities, considering four competing theoretical hypotheses: “expenditures-revenues”; “revenues-expenditures”; “fiscal synchronization”; and “fiscal neutrality”, over time (2013:12÷2023:03). Method: The study was conducted using wavelet coherence analysis, which made it possible to separate short-term, medium-term and long-term effects in the dynamic dependence of the analyzed variables, and identify the direction and intensity of this relationship. Finding: The research results indicate the existence of all four relationships between aggregated budget revenues and expenditures of the federal constituent entities for various time periods, on different time scales, throughout the entire observation time interval (2013:12÷2023:03). These findings demonstrate that, to a greater extent, the budgets of the federal constituent entities are characterized by the presence of a dynamic relationship between aggregated revenues and expenditures in the following modes: “revenues-expenditures” (when revenues are ahead of expenditures) and “expenditures-revenues” (when expenditures are ahead of revenues). In addition, the time scale and time range of the emergence of the “fiscal synchronization” and “fiscal neutrality” modes in the relationship between aggregated revenues and expenditures of the federal constituent entities are determined. Implication: The results obtained provide a possible explanation for the contradictory results of numerous studies based on traditional methods and empirical observations over different historical periods, since each of these methods only partially explains a particular mode of the dynamic relationship between revenues and expenditures. The theoretical significance of the study lies in the substantiation that continuous wavelet analysis is a powerful tool for studying the nonlinear relationship between revenues and expenditures, since understanding the causalities between revenues and expenditures on various time scales is significant for choosing measures aimed at maintaining the budget sustainability of the federal constituent entities. The practical significance of the research results is determined by the fact that they can be an essential starting point for determining the necessary fiscal policy measures aimed at increasing the budget sustainability of the federal constituent entities. https://journal.qubahan.com/index.php/qaj/article/view/549regional-level budgetssustainability of regional budgetfiscal policytime-frequency dependenceaggregated expenses |
| spellingShingle | Alan K. Karaev Oksana S. Gorlova Vadim V. Ponkratov Margarita L. Vasyunina Andrey I. Masterov Hongor N. Zambaev Lolita H. Gueva Dynamic Interrelation between Aggregated Revenues and Expenditures of Regional-Level Budgets of Federal States: A Time-Frequency Approach to Analysis Qubahan Academic Journal regional-level budgets sustainability of regional budget fiscal policy time-frequency dependence aggregated expenses |
| title | Dynamic Interrelation between Aggregated Revenues and Expenditures of Regional-Level Budgets of Federal States: A Time-Frequency Approach to Analysis |
| title_full | Dynamic Interrelation between Aggregated Revenues and Expenditures of Regional-Level Budgets of Federal States: A Time-Frequency Approach to Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic Interrelation between Aggregated Revenues and Expenditures of Regional-Level Budgets of Federal States: A Time-Frequency Approach to Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic Interrelation between Aggregated Revenues and Expenditures of Regional-Level Budgets of Federal States: A Time-Frequency Approach to Analysis |
| title_short | Dynamic Interrelation between Aggregated Revenues and Expenditures of Regional-Level Budgets of Federal States: A Time-Frequency Approach to Analysis |
| title_sort | dynamic interrelation between aggregated revenues and expenditures of regional level budgets of federal states a time frequency approach to analysis |
| topic | regional-level budgets sustainability of regional budget fiscal policy time-frequency dependence aggregated expenses |
| url | https://journal.qubahan.com/index.php/qaj/article/view/549 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alankkaraev dynamicinterrelationbetweenaggregatedrevenuesandexpendituresofregionallevelbudgetsoffederalstatesatimefrequencyapproachtoanalysis AT oksanasgorlova dynamicinterrelationbetweenaggregatedrevenuesandexpendituresofregionallevelbudgetsoffederalstatesatimefrequencyapproachtoanalysis AT vadimvponkratov dynamicinterrelationbetweenaggregatedrevenuesandexpendituresofregionallevelbudgetsoffederalstatesatimefrequencyapproachtoanalysis AT margaritalvasyunina dynamicinterrelationbetweenaggregatedrevenuesandexpendituresofregionallevelbudgetsoffederalstatesatimefrequencyapproachtoanalysis AT andreyimasterov dynamicinterrelationbetweenaggregatedrevenuesandexpendituresofregionallevelbudgetsoffederalstatesatimefrequencyapproachtoanalysis AT hongornzambaev dynamicinterrelationbetweenaggregatedrevenuesandexpendituresofregionallevelbudgetsoffederalstatesatimefrequencyapproachtoanalysis AT lolitahgueva dynamicinterrelationbetweenaggregatedrevenuesandexpendituresofregionallevelbudgetsoffederalstatesatimefrequencyapproachtoanalysis |