Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies
This paper attempts to examine the impact of energy price shocks, monetary policy, and geopolitical events on inflation in selected European countries across different periods of time by applying a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. The analysis...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025006826 |
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| author | Cumali Marangoz |
| author_facet | Cumali Marangoz |
| author_sort | Cumali Marangoz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper attempts to examine the impact of energy price shocks, monetary policy, and geopolitical events on inflation in selected European countries across different periods of time by applying a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. The analysis displays the diverse impact of gas prices on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a gauge for inflation, in the short, medium, and long term. Moreover, the findings show that oil price shocks with deflationary trends during COVID-19 have inflationary consequences. The results also show that the European Central Bank's response to the pandemic-induced economic downturn has affected long-term inflation trends. Furthermore, significant geopolitical risks that arose from the Russia-Ukraine war amplified inflationary trends. The findings contribute valuable insights into the multifaceted dynamics shaping inflation in European economies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6ac75cdd25e942e0ad59183819f9524f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj-art-6ac75cdd25e942e0ad59183819f9524f2025-02-04T04:10:30ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402025-02-01113e42302Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economiesCumali Marangoz0Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, 04100, Ağrı, TurkeyThis paper attempts to examine the impact of energy price shocks, monetary policy, and geopolitical events on inflation in selected European countries across different periods of time by applying a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. The analysis displays the diverse impact of gas prices on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a gauge for inflation, in the short, medium, and long term. Moreover, the findings show that oil price shocks with deflationary trends during COVID-19 have inflationary consequences. The results also show that the European Central Bank's response to the pandemic-induced economic downturn has affected long-term inflation trends. Furthermore, significant geopolitical risks that arose from the Russia-Ukraine war amplified inflationary trends. The findings contribute valuable insights into the multifaceted dynamics shaping inflation in European economies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025006826A1E31E51Q43R11 |
| spellingShingle | Cumali Marangoz Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies Heliyon A1 E31 E51 Q43 R11 |
| title | Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies |
| title_full | Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies |
| title_fullStr | Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies |
| title_full_unstemmed | Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies |
| title_short | Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies |
| title_sort | geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics analyzing the impact on inflation in selected european economies |
| topic | A1 E31 E51 Q43 R11 |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025006826 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cumalimarangoz geopoliticalturmoilandenergydynamicsanalyzingtheimpactoninflationinselectedeuropeaneconomies |