Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy
This paper shows the performance of an operational forecasting system, based on the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), at 3 km horizontal resolution over southern Italy. The model is initialized from the 12 UTC operational analysis/forecasting cycle of the European Centre for Medium range...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/758250 |
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| _version_ | 1832551050676011008 |
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| author | Luca Tiriolo Rosa Claudia Torcasio Stefania Montesanti Stefano Federico |
| author_facet | Luca Tiriolo Rosa Claudia Torcasio Stefania Montesanti Stefano Federico |
| author_sort | Luca Tiriolo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper shows the performance of an operational forecasting system, based on the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), at 3 km horizontal resolution over southern Italy. The model is initialized from the 12 UTC operational analysis/forecasting cycle of the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The forecast is issued for the following three days. The performance is evaluated for a whole year for the surface parameters: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. The verification has been performed against SYNOP stations over southern Italy. A dense non-GTS network over Calabria is used for precipitation. Results show that RMSE is about 2-3 K for temperature, 12–16% for relative humidity, 2.0–2.8 m/s for wind speed, and 55–75° for wind direction, the performance varying with the season and with the forecasting time. The error increases between the first and third forecast days. The verification of the rainfall forecast shows that the model underestimates the area of the precipitation. The model output statistics (MOS) is applied to all parameters but precipitation. Results show that the MOS reduces the RMSE by 0–30%, depending on the forecasting time, on the season and on the meteorological parameter. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-64a34abfcf194038a9e01bf0bb77fbba |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-64a34abfcf194038a9e01bf0bb77fbba2025-02-03T06:05:07ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172015-01-01201510.1155/2015/758250758250Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern ItalyLuca Tiriolo0Rosa Claudia Torcasio1Stefania Montesanti2Stefano Federico3ISAC-CNR, 88046 Lamezia Terme, ItalyISAC-CNR, 88046 Lamezia Terme, ItalyISAC-CNR, 88046 Lamezia Terme, ItalyISAC-CNR, 00133 Rome, ItalyThis paper shows the performance of an operational forecasting system, based on the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), at 3 km horizontal resolution over southern Italy. The model is initialized from the 12 UTC operational analysis/forecasting cycle of the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The forecast is issued for the following three days. The performance is evaluated for a whole year for the surface parameters: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. The verification has been performed against SYNOP stations over southern Italy. A dense non-GTS network over Calabria is used for precipitation. Results show that RMSE is about 2-3 K for temperature, 12–16% for relative humidity, 2.0–2.8 m/s for wind speed, and 55–75° for wind direction, the performance varying with the season and with the forecasting time. The error increases between the first and third forecast days. The verification of the rainfall forecast shows that the model underestimates the area of the precipitation. The model output statistics (MOS) is applied to all parameters but precipitation. Results show that the MOS reduces the RMSE by 0–30%, depending on the forecasting time, on the season and on the meteorological parameter.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/758250 |
| spellingShingle | Luca Tiriolo Rosa Claudia Torcasio Stefania Montesanti Stefano Federico Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy |
| title_full | Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy |
| title_fullStr | Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy |
| title_short | Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy |
| title_sort | verification of a real time weather forecasting system in southern italy |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/758250 |
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