Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions
Initialization based on data assimilations using historical observations possibly improves near-term climate predictions. Significant volcanic activity in the future is unpredictable and not assumed in future climate predictions. To examine the possible influence of unpredictable future volcanic act...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2010-01-01
|
| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/657318 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | Initialization based on data assimilations using historical observations possibly improves near-term climate predictions. Significant volcanic activity in the future is unpredictable and not assumed in future climate predictions. To examine the possible influence of unpredictable future volcanic activity on the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability, we performed a 2006–2035 climate prediction experiment with the assumption that the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption would take place again in 2010. The Pinatubo forcing induced not only significant cooling responses but also considerable noises in the natural variability. The errors due to the Pinatubo forcing grew faster than that arising from imperfect knowledge of the observed state, leading to a rapid reduction of the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |