Climate change impacts on flood risks in the Abou Ali River Basin, Lebanon: A hydrological modeling approach
Climate change presents a significant environmental and socioeconomic challenges in the 21st century, notably disrupting water resources in Lebanon through altered rainfall patterns and increased flood risks. This research examines the impacts of climate change on flood dynamics in the Abou Ali Rive...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Results in Engineering |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123025002725 |
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| author | Fouadi AlZaatiti Jalal Halwani Mohamed R. Soliman |
| author_facet | Fouadi AlZaatiti Jalal Halwani Mohamed R. Soliman |
| author_sort | Fouadi AlZaatiti |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change presents a significant environmental and socioeconomic challenges in the 21st century, notably disrupting water resources in Lebanon through altered rainfall patterns and increased flood risks. This research examines the impacts of climate change on flood dynamics in the Abou Ali River Basin in Tripoli, Lebanon, utilizing three global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report: ACCESS-CM2, BCCCSM2-MR, and MIROC6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2–45 and SSP5–85. Downscaling and bias correction were done using the CMhyd tool to ensure accuracy in the climate model projections. The findings show an overall decrease in precipitation of -10.8 % (ACCESS-CM2) and -13.2 % (MIROC6) under SSP5–85, respectively, aligning with broader regional trends. In contrast, BCCCSM2-MR predicts an 8 % increase in precipitation, under the same scenario. Flood modeling with the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model reveals a dramatic increase in inundation extent, from 8.78 km² to 26.05 km², and a rise in maximum depth from 6.5 m to 14.7 m, with urban and agricultural areas at significant risk. This study provides crucial insights into future flood risks in Tripoli, emphasizing proactive responses to climate change challenges. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-596868fbbed042cfa7dc749d0b4ad9a1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2590-1230 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Results in Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-596868fbbed042cfa7dc749d0b4ad9a12025-02-02T05:29:16ZengElsevierResults in Engineering2590-12302025-03-0125104186Climate change impacts on flood risks in the Abou Ali River Basin, Lebanon: A hydrological modeling approachFouadi AlZaatiti0Jalal Halwani1Mohamed R. Soliman2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Beirut Arab University, P.O. Box 11, Riad El Solh, Beirut 5020, Lebanon; Corresponding author.Water and Environment Sciences Laboratory, Lebanese University, Tripoli, P.O. Box 6573/14, LebanonDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Beirut Arab University, P.O. Box 11, Riad El Solh, Beirut 5020, Lebanon; Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, EgyptClimate change presents a significant environmental and socioeconomic challenges in the 21st century, notably disrupting water resources in Lebanon through altered rainfall patterns and increased flood risks. This research examines the impacts of climate change on flood dynamics in the Abou Ali River Basin in Tripoli, Lebanon, utilizing three global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report: ACCESS-CM2, BCCCSM2-MR, and MIROC6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2–45 and SSP5–85. Downscaling and bias correction were done using the CMhyd tool to ensure accuracy in the climate model projections. The findings show an overall decrease in precipitation of -10.8 % (ACCESS-CM2) and -13.2 % (MIROC6) under SSP5–85, respectively, aligning with broader regional trends. In contrast, BCCCSM2-MR predicts an 8 % increase in precipitation, under the same scenario. Flood modeling with the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model reveals a dramatic increase in inundation extent, from 8.78 km² to 26.05 km², and a rise in maximum depth from 6.5 m to 14.7 m, with urban and agricultural areas at significant risk. This study provides crucial insights into future flood risks in Tripoli, emphasizing proactive responses to climate change challenges.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123025002725Flood modelingClimate changeRRI model, CMIP6, Abou Ali River, Precipitation |
| spellingShingle | Fouadi AlZaatiti Jalal Halwani Mohamed R. Soliman Climate change impacts on flood risks in the Abou Ali River Basin, Lebanon: A hydrological modeling approach Results in Engineering Flood modeling Climate change RRI model, CMIP6, Abou Ali River, Precipitation |
| title | Climate change impacts on flood risks in the Abou Ali River Basin, Lebanon: A hydrological modeling approach |
| title_full | Climate change impacts on flood risks in the Abou Ali River Basin, Lebanon: A hydrological modeling approach |
| title_fullStr | Climate change impacts on flood risks in the Abou Ali River Basin, Lebanon: A hydrological modeling approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change impacts on flood risks in the Abou Ali River Basin, Lebanon: A hydrological modeling approach |
| title_short | Climate change impacts on flood risks in the Abou Ali River Basin, Lebanon: A hydrological modeling approach |
| title_sort | climate change impacts on flood risks in the abou ali river basin lebanon a hydrological modeling approach |
| topic | Flood modeling Climate change RRI model, CMIP6, Abou Ali River, Precipitation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123025002725 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fouadialzaatiti climatechangeimpactsonfloodrisksintheaboualiriverbasinlebanonahydrologicalmodelingapproach AT jalalhalwani climatechangeimpactsonfloodrisksintheaboualiriverbasinlebanonahydrologicalmodelingapproach AT mohamedrsoliman climatechangeimpactsonfloodrisksintheaboualiriverbasinlebanonahydrologicalmodelingapproach |