Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change
Abstract Climate change-related risk mitigation is typically addressed using cost-benefit analysis that evaluates mitigation strategies against a wide range of simulated scenarios and identifies a static policy to be implemented, without considering future observations. Due to the substantial uncert...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55679-9 |
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| author | Ashmita Bhattacharya Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou Gordon P. Warn Lauren McPhillips Melissa M. Bilec Chris E. Forest Rahaf Hasan Digant Chavda |
| author_facet | Ashmita Bhattacharya Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou Gordon P. Warn Lauren McPhillips Melissa M. Bilec Chris E. Forest Rahaf Hasan Digant Chavda |
| author_sort | Ashmita Bhattacharya |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change-related risk mitigation is typically addressed using cost-benefit analysis that evaluates mitigation strategies against a wide range of simulated scenarios and identifies a static policy to be implemented, without considering future observations. Due to the substantial uncertainties inherent in climate projections, this identified policy will likely be sub-optimal with respect to the actual climate trajectory that evolves in time. In this work, we thus formulate climate risk management as a dynamic decision-making problem based on Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Partially Observable MDPs (POMDPs), taking real-time data into account for evaluating the evolving conditions and related model uncertainties, in order to select the best possible life-cycle actions in time, with global optimality guarantees for the formulated optimization problem. The framework is developed for coastal adaptation applications, considering a wide variety of possible action types, including various forms of nature-based infrastructure. Related environmental impacts of carbon emissions and uptake are also incorporated, and social cost of carbon implications are discussed, together with several future directions and supported features. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-54f32491a79e40b5bcc665c4b0754515 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-54f32491a79e40b5bcc665c4b07545152025-02-02T12:31:27ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-01-0116111810.1038/s41467-024-55679-9Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate changeAshmita Bhattacharya0Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou1Gordon P. Warn2Lauren McPhillips3Melissa M. Bilec4Chris E. Forest5Rahaf Hasan6Digant Chavda7Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of PittsburghDepartment of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of PittsburghDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State UniversityAbstract Climate change-related risk mitigation is typically addressed using cost-benefit analysis that evaluates mitigation strategies against a wide range of simulated scenarios and identifies a static policy to be implemented, without considering future observations. Due to the substantial uncertainties inherent in climate projections, this identified policy will likely be sub-optimal with respect to the actual climate trajectory that evolves in time. In this work, we thus formulate climate risk management as a dynamic decision-making problem based on Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Partially Observable MDPs (POMDPs), taking real-time data into account for evaluating the evolving conditions and related model uncertainties, in order to select the best possible life-cycle actions in time, with global optimality guarantees for the formulated optimization problem. The framework is developed for coastal adaptation applications, considering a wide variety of possible action types, including various forms of nature-based infrastructure. Related environmental impacts of carbon emissions and uptake are also incorporated, and social cost of carbon implications are discussed, together with several future directions and supported features.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55679-9 |
| spellingShingle | Ashmita Bhattacharya Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou Gordon P. Warn Lauren McPhillips Melissa M. Bilec Chris E. Forest Rahaf Hasan Digant Chavda Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change Nature Communications |
| title | Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change |
| title_full | Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change |
| title_short | Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change |
| title_sort | optimal life cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55679-9 |
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