Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model
Abstract The Last Ice Area—located to the north of Greenland and the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago—is expected to persist as the central Arctic Ocean becomes seasonally ice-free within a few decades. Projections of the Last Ice Area, however, have come from relatively low resolution Global Cl...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02034-5 |
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| author | Madeleine Fol Bruno Tremblay Stephanie Pfirman Robert Newton Stephen Howell Jean-François Lemieux |
| author_facet | Madeleine Fol Bruno Tremblay Stephanie Pfirman Robert Newton Stephen Howell Jean-François Lemieux |
| author_sort | Madeleine Fol |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Last Ice Area—located to the north of Greenland and the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago—is expected to persist as the central Arctic Ocean becomes seasonally ice-free within a few decades. Projections of the Last Ice Area, however, have come from relatively low resolution Global Climate Models that do not resolve sea ice export through the waterways of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait. Here we revisit Last Ice Area projections using high-resolution numerical simulations from the Community Earth System Model, which resolves these narrow waterways. Under a high-end forcing scenario, the sea ice of the Last Ice Area thins and becomes more mobile, resulting in a large export southward. Under this potentially worst-case scenario, sea ice of the Last Ice Area could disappear a little more than one decade after the central Arctic Ocean has reached seasonally ice-free conditions. This loss would have profound impacts on ice-obligate species. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-54482b5786cc40a1a0a1339575b55733 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-54482b5786cc40a1a0a1339575b557332025-01-26T12:54:06ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-01-016111210.1038/s43247-025-02034-5Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System ModelMadeleine Fol0Bruno Tremblay1Stephanie Pfirman2Robert Newton3Stephen Howell4Jean-François Lemieux5Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill UniversityCollege of Global Futures, Arizona State UniversityLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia UniversityClimate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change CanadaRecherche en Prévision Numérique Environnementale/Environnement et Changement Climatique CanadaAbstract The Last Ice Area—located to the north of Greenland and the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago—is expected to persist as the central Arctic Ocean becomes seasonally ice-free within a few decades. Projections of the Last Ice Area, however, have come from relatively low resolution Global Climate Models that do not resolve sea ice export through the waterways of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait. Here we revisit Last Ice Area projections using high-resolution numerical simulations from the Community Earth System Model, which resolves these narrow waterways. Under a high-end forcing scenario, the sea ice of the Last Ice Area thins and becomes more mobile, resulting in a large export southward. Under this potentially worst-case scenario, sea ice of the Last Ice Area could disappear a little more than one decade after the central Arctic Ocean has reached seasonally ice-free conditions. This loss would have profound impacts on ice-obligate species.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02034-5 |
| spellingShingle | Madeleine Fol Bruno Tremblay Stephanie Pfirman Robert Newton Stephen Howell Jean-François Lemieux Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model |
| title_full | Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model |
| title_fullStr | Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model |
| title_short | Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model |
| title_sort | revisiting the last ice area projections from a high resolution global earth system model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02034-5 |
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