Stochastic model of economic cycles and its econometric application
In this paper, I demonstrate the adequacy of economic systems to the basic provisions of synergetics, which makes the latter eligible for macroeconomic analysis. In justifying this statement, a synergetic approach to the development of a model of economic cycles was considered. The novelty of this m...
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AIMS Press
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Data Science in Finance and Economics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/DSFE.2024026 |
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| author | Karmalita Viacheslav |
| author_facet | Karmalita Viacheslav |
| author_sort | Karmalita Viacheslav |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, I demonstrate the adequacy of economic systems to the basic provisions of synergetics, which makes the latter eligible for macroeconomic analysis. In justifying this statement, a synergetic approach to the development of a model of economic cycles was considered. The novelty of this model was related to the probabilistic description of the investment function and the perception of the economic system as a material object with certain properties. According to the model, the income oscillations are induced by both exogenous (investment fluctuations) and endogenous (system elasticity) causes. The cycle's amplitudes correlate with the intensity of investment fluctuations as well as the efficiency of the economic system. The duration of the economic cycle is determined by the inclusive wealth of the system and its dynamic factor, which characterizes the ability of the system to withstand investment fluctuations and eliminates their consequences. Thus, the economic cycle is interpreted as the 'natural noise' accompanying the functioning of market economics.The proposed model creates a mathematical basis for the numerical analysis of empirical economic data. An example of possible econometric applications of the model was considered using the current cyclic contraction in US incomes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-532c640b2f154c5f804cd370b6b7c6fe |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2769-2140 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Data Science in Finance and Economics |
| spelling | doaj-art-532c640b2f154c5f804cd370b6b7c6fe2025-01-24T01:03:03ZengAIMS PressData Science in Finance and Economics2769-21402024-12-014461562810.3934/DSFE.2024026Stochastic model of economic cycles and its econometric applicationKarmalita Viacheslav0255 Boylan Ave., Dorval, Quebec H9S5J7, CanadaIn this paper, I demonstrate the adequacy of economic systems to the basic provisions of synergetics, which makes the latter eligible for macroeconomic analysis. In justifying this statement, a synergetic approach to the development of a model of economic cycles was considered. The novelty of this model was related to the probabilistic description of the investment function and the perception of the economic system as a material object with certain properties. According to the model, the income oscillations are induced by both exogenous (investment fluctuations) and endogenous (system elasticity) causes. The cycle's amplitudes correlate with the intensity of investment fluctuations as well as the efficiency of the economic system. The duration of the economic cycle is determined by the inclusive wealth of the system and its dynamic factor, which characterizes the ability of the system to withstand investment fluctuations and eliminates their consequences. Thus, the economic cycle is interpreted as the 'natural noise' accompanying the functioning of market economics.The proposed model creates a mathematical basis for the numerical analysis of empirical economic data. An example of possible econometric applications of the model was considered using the current cyclic contraction in US incomes.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/DSFE.2024026synergeticseconomic cycleelastic systemrandom oscillationsfourier transform |
| spellingShingle | Karmalita Viacheslav Stochastic model of economic cycles and its econometric application Data Science in Finance and Economics synergetics economic cycle elastic system random oscillations fourier transform |
| title | Stochastic model of economic cycles and its econometric application |
| title_full | Stochastic model of economic cycles and its econometric application |
| title_fullStr | Stochastic model of economic cycles and its econometric application |
| title_full_unstemmed | Stochastic model of economic cycles and its econometric application |
| title_short | Stochastic model of economic cycles and its econometric application |
| title_sort | stochastic model of economic cycles and its econometric application |
| topic | synergetics economic cycle elastic system random oscillations fourier transform |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/DSFE.2024026 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT karmalitaviacheslav stochasticmodelofeconomiccyclesanditseconometricapplication |