Analysis and prediction of urban agglomeration ecological footprint based on improved three-dimensional ecological footprint and shared socioeconomic pathways
Ecological degradation has significantly affected many regions of the nation, particularly those undergoing rapid economic expansion. In recent years, Shaanxi’s Guanzhong region has experienced sustained economic growth, with industrialization and urbanization imposing considerable pressure on the l...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000081 |
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| author | Ruirui Jiang Liangjun Fei Shouxuan Kang |
| author_facet | Ruirui Jiang Liangjun Fei Shouxuan Kang |
| author_sort | Ruirui Jiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Ecological degradation has significantly affected many regions of the nation, particularly those undergoing rapid economic expansion. In recent years, Shaanxi’s Guanzhong region has experienced sustained economic growth, with industrialization and urbanization imposing considerable pressure on the local environment. This study analyzes the spatial–temporal dynamics of ecological security, sustainability, and driving factors in Shaanxi’s Guanzhong urban agglomeration. Using an extended nonlinear STIRPAT model, this study projects population and urbanization rates under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) scenarios. The results reveal a 4.3-fold increase in the ecological footprint in the Guanzhong region during the study period, alongside a decline in carrying capacity, resulting in a pronounced ecological deficit. Despite some progress in coordinated development, ecological security and sustainability levels remain low. Population growth and per capita GDP are identified as the primary drivers of the three-dimensional ecological footprint expansion. Projections indicate that the population-driven ecological footprint will peak between 2025 and 2027, with the highest peak under SSP5. By 2050, urbanization’s contribution to the ecological footprint is expected to decrease significantly, with the sharpest reductions expected under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3. This study provides valuable guidance for addressing the ecological-economic imbalance in rapidly urbanizing and industrializing urban agglomerations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5032c0ef7399494b939bcb89ffd76b56 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-5032c0ef7399494b939bcb89ffd76b562025-01-31T05:10:47ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-01-01170113079Analysis and prediction of urban agglomeration ecological footprint based on improved three-dimensional ecological footprint and shared socioeconomic pathwaysRuirui Jiang0Liangjun Fei1Shouxuan Kang2State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, ChinaCorresponding author.; State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, ChinaEcological degradation has significantly affected many regions of the nation, particularly those undergoing rapid economic expansion. In recent years, Shaanxi’s Guanzhong region has experienced sustained economic growth, with industrialization and urbanization imposing considerable pressure on the local environment. This study analyzes the spatial–temporal dynamics of ecological security, sustainability, and driving factors in Shaanxi’s Guanzhong urban agglomeration. Using an extended nonlinear STIRPAT model, this study projects population and urbanization rates under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) scenarios. The results reveal a 4.3-fold increase in the ecological footprint in the Guanzhong region during the study period, alongside a decline in carrying capacity, resulting in a pronounced ecological deficit. Despite some progress in coordinated development, ecological security and sustainability levels remain low. Population growth and per capita GDP are identified as the primary drivers of the three-dimensional ecological footprint expansion. Projections indicate that the population-driven ecological footprint will peak between 2025 and 2027, with the highest peak under SSP5. By 2050, urbanization’s contribution to the ecological footprint is expected to decrease significantly, with the sharpest reductions expected under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3. This study provides valuable guidance for addressing the ecological-economic imbalance in rapidly urbanizing and industrializing urban agglomerations.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000081Three-Dimensional Ecological FootprintExtended STIRPAT modelShared socioeconomic pathwaysPartial least squares methodUrbanization rate |
| spellingShingle | Ruirui Jiang Liangjun Fei Shouxuan Kang Analysis and prediction of urban agglomeration ecological footprint based on improved three-dimensional ecological footprint and shared socioeconomic pathways Ecological Indicators Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Extended STIRPAT model Shared socioeconomic pathways Partial least squares method Urbanization rate |
| title | Analysis and prediction of urban agglomeration ecological footprint based on improved three-dimensional ecological footprint and shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title_full | Analysis and prediction of urban agglomeration ecological footprint based on improved three-dimensional ecological footprint and shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title_fullStr | Analysis and prediction of urban agglomeration ecological footprint based on improved three-dimensional ecological footprint and shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis and prediction of urban agglomeration ecological footprint based on improved three-dimensional ecological footprint and shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title_short | Analysis and prediction of urban agglomeration ecological footprint based on improved three-dimensional ecological footprint and shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title_sort | analysis and prediction of urban agglomeration ecological footprint based on improved three dimensional ecological footprint and shared socioeconomic pathways |
| topic | Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Extended STIRPAT model Shared socioeconomic pathways Partial least squares method Urbanization rate |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000081 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ruiruijiang analysisandpredictionofurbanagglomerationecologicalfootprintbasedonimprovedthreedimensionalecologicalfootprintandsharedsocioeconomicpathways AT liangjunfei analysisandpredictionofurbanagglomerationecologicalfootprintbasedonimprovedthreedimensionalecologicalfootprintandsharedsocioeconomicpathways AT shouxuankang analysisandpredictionofurbanagglomerationecologicalfootprintbasedonimprovedthreedimensionalecologicalfootprintandsharedsocioeconomicpathways |