Global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions
Abstract In recent years, increased salt intrusion in surface waters has threatened freshwater availability in coastal regions worldwide. Yet, current future projections of salt intrusion are limited to local regions or changes to single forcing agents. Here, we quantify compounding contributions fr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58783-6 |
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| author | Jiyong Lee Bouke Biemond Daan van Keulen Ymkje Huismans René M. van Westen Huib E. de Swart Henk A. Dijkstra Wouter M. Kranenburg |
| author_facet | Jiyong Lee Bouke Biemond Daan van Keulen Ymkje Huismans René M. van Westen Huib E. de Swart Henk A. Dijkstra Wouter M. Kranenburg |
| author_sort | Jiyong Lee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In recent years, increased salt intrusion in surface waters has threatened freshwater availability in coastal regions worldwide. Yet, current future projections of salt intrusion are limited to local regions or changes to single forcing agents. Here, we quantify compounding contributions from changes in river discharge and relative sea level to changing future salt intrusion under a high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP3-7.0) for 18 estuaries around the world. We find that the annual 90th percentile future salt intrusion is projected to increase between 1.3% and 18.2% (median 9.1%) in 89% of the studied estuaries worldwide. Our analysis also indicates that, on average, sea-level rise contributes approximately two times more to increasing future salt intrusion than reduced river discharge. We further show that the return levels of present-day 100-year salt intrusion events are projected to increase between 3.2% and 25.2% (median 10.2%) in 83% of the studied estuaries. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4b8c04bf6ffd4c1e846c512d406c901b |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-4b8c04bf6ffd4c1e846c512d406c901b2025-08-20T03:18:32ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-04-011611910.1038/s41467-025-58783-6Global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditionsJiyong Lee0Bouke Biemond1Daan van Keulen2Ymkje Huismans3René M. van Westen4Huib E. de Swart5Henk A. Dijkstra6Wouter M. Kranenburg7Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht UniversityDepartment of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht UniversityDeltaresDeltaresDepartment of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht UniversityDepartment of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht UniversityDepartment of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht UniversityDeltaresAbstract In recent years, increased salt intrusion in surface waters has threatened freshwater availability in coastal regions worldwide. Yet, current future projections of salt intrusion are limited to local regions or changes to single forcing agents. Here, we quantify compounding contributions from changes in river discharge and relative sea level to changing future salt intrusion under a high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP3-7.0) for 18 estuaries around the world. We find that the annual 90th percentile future salt intrusion is projected to increase between 1.3% and 18.2% (median 9.1%) in 89% of the studied estuaries worldwide. Our analysis also indicates that, on average, sea-level rise contributes approximately two times more to increasing future salt intrusion than reduced river discharge. We further show that the return levels of present-day 100-year salt intrusion events are projected to increase between 3.2% and 25.2% (median 10.2%) in 83% of the studied estuaries.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58783-6 |
| spellingShingle | Jiyong Lee Bouke Biemond Daan van Keulen Ymkje Huismans René M. van Westen Huib E. de Swart Henk A. Dijkstra Wouter M. Kranenburg Global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions Nature Communications |
| title | Global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions |
| title_full | Global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions |
| title_fullStr | Global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions |
| title_short | Global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions |
| title_sort | global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58783-6 |
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