Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter
The intensity of light emanating from sun is determined by using a meteorological version and is altered with the numerical version, and the forecast accuracy is improved in advance by using Kalman Filter. As the accuracy of the version output related to its specific position is often questionable,...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-01-01
|
| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1523198 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832554957231882240 |
|---|---|
| author | Yuanyuan Liu |
| author_facet | Yuanyuan Liu |
| author_sort | Yuanyuan Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The intensity of light emanating from sun is determined by using a meteorological version and is altered with the numerical version, and the forecast accuracy is improved in advance by using Kalman Filter. As the accuracy of the version output related to its specific position is often questionable, group prediction constituting three members is suggested and agreed upon measurement. Also, this ensemble prediction provides an estimation of the solar global horizontal irradiance uncertainty (i.e., coverage rate of the prediction interval), which can be useful to provide flexible energy production forecasts. This article displays how the method Kalman filter could be used as an error correction way to alter the predicted irradiance value. The Kalman filter ameliorates the prediction of solar global horizontal irradiance as well as its interval. As the empirical coverage rate increases and closes to the nominal coverage rate, the interval size reduces. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2dea40e97eb24bc9afae5b1f1805fa0e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-2dea40e97eb24bc9afae5b1f1805fa0e2025-02-03T05:50:00ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93172022-01-01202210.1155/2022/1523198Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman FilterYuanyuan Liu0Department of MathematicsThe intensity of light emanating from sun is determined by using a meteorological version and is altered with the numerical version, and the forecast accuracy is improved in advance by using Kalman Filter. As the accuracy of the version output related to its specific position is often questionable, group prediction constituting three members is suggested and agreed upon measurement. Also, this ensemble prediction provides an estimation of the solar global horizontal irradiance uncertainty (i.e., coverage rate of the prediction interval), which can be useful to provide flexible energy production forecasts. This article displays how the method Kalman filter could be used as an error correction way to alter the predicted irradiance value. The Kalman filter ameliorates the prediction of solar global horizontal irradiance as well as its interval. As the empirical coverage rate increases and closes to the nominal coverage rate, the interval size reduces.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1523198 |
| spellingShingle | Yuanyuan Liu Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter |
| title_full | Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter |
| title_fullStr | Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter |
| title_full_unstemmed | Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter |
| title_short | Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter |
| title_sort | solar ghi ensemble prediction based on a meteorological model and method kalman filter |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1523198 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yuanyuanliu solarghiensemblepredictionbasedonameteorologicalmodelandmethodkalmanfilter |