On the Limitations of Univariate Grey Prediction Models: Findings and Failures
Grey systems theory can be used to predict the evolution of a system with insufficient information. Unfortunately, the most used version of the grey model (GM), namely, GM(1,1), works best when the system series have an increasing exponential rate. In any other case, the GM(1,1) produces inaccurate...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Computational and Mathematical Methods |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/9961208 |
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| _version_ | 1832564939619827712 |
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| author | Aubin Kinfack Jeutsa Marius Tony Kibong Benjamin Salomon Diboma Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken Prosper Gopdjim Noumo Jean Gaston Tamba |
| author_facet | Aubin Kinfack Jeutsa Marius Tony Kibong Benjamin Salomon Diboma Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken Prosper Gopdjim Noumo Jean Gaston Tamba |
| author_sort | Aubin Kinfack Jeutsa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Grey systems theory can be used to predict the evolution of a system with insufficient information. Unfortunately, the most used version of the grey model (GM), namely, GM(1,1), works best when the system series have an increasing exponential rate. In any other case, the GM(1,1) produces inaccurate predictions. In this paper, we examine the mathematical formulation of the conventional GM(1,1) in order to propose a new GM that addresses its shortcomings through a new time response function. Examples are presented to demonstrate the flexibility and accuracy of the new model when implemented with series of various natures. Comparisons with other intelligent GM(1,1) show that the proposed model performs better than the reference models. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2a89500b22e84537bf38e7db69a93ef1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2577-7408 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Computational and Mathematical Methods |
| spelling | doaj-art-2a89500b22e84537bf38e7db69a93ef12025-02-03T01:09:51ZengWileyComputational and Mathematical Methods2577-74082024-01-01202410.1155/2024/9961208On the Limitations of Univariate Grey Prediction Models: Findings and FailuresAubin Kinfack Jeutsa0Marius Tony Kibong1Benjamin Salomon Diboma2Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken3Prosper Gopdjim Noumo4Jean Gaston Tamba5University of BueaUniversity of EbolowaUniversity of EbolowaUniversity of DoualaUniversity of EbolowaUniversity of DoualaGrey systems theory can be used to predict the evolution of a system with insufficient information. Unfortunately, the most used version of the grey model (GM), namely, GM(1,1), works best when the system series have an increasing exponential rate. In any other case, the GM(1,1) produces inaccurate predictions. In this paper, we examine the mathematical formulation of the conventional GM(1,1) in order to propose a new GM that addresses its shortcomings through a new time response function. Examples are presented to demonstrate the flexibility and accuracy of the new model when implemented with series of various natures. Comparisons with other intelligent GM(1,1) show that the proposed model performs better than the reference models.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/9961208 |
| spellingShingle | Aubin Kinfack Jeutsa Marius Tony Kibong Benjamin Salomon Diboma Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken Prosper Gopdjim Noumo Jean Gaston Tamba On the Limitations of Univariate Grey Prediction Models: Findings and Failures Computational and Mathematical Methods |
| title | On the Limitations of Univariate Grey Prediction Models: Findings and Failures |
| title_full | On the Limitations of Univariate Grey Prediction Models: Findings and Failures |
| title_fullStr | On the Limitations of Univariate Grey Prediction Models: Findings and Failures |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the Limitations of Univariate Grey Prediction Models: Findings and Failures |
| title_short | On the Limitations of Univariate Grey Prediction Models: Findings and Failures |
| title_sort | on the limitations of univariate grey prediction models findings and failures |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/9961208 |
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