Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland
At the outset of an influenza pandemic, early estimates of the number of secondarycases generated by a primary influenza case (reproduction number, $R$) and its associateduncertainty can help determine the intensity of interventions necessary for control.Using a compartmental model and hospital noti...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
AIMS Press
2007-04-01
|
| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2007.4.457 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832590237690232832 |
|---|---|
| author | Gerardo Chowell Catherine E. Ammon Nicolas W. Hengartner James M. Hyman |
| author_facet | Gerardo Chowell Catherine E. Ammon Nicolas W. Hengartner James M. Hyman |
| author_sort | Gerardo Chowell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | At the outset of an influenza pandemic, early estimates of the number of secondarycases generated by a primary influenza case (reproduction number, $R$) and its associateduncertainty can help determine the intensity of interventions necessary for control.Using a compartmental model and hospital notification data of the first two waves of theSpanish flu pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland in 1918, we estimate the reproduction numberfrom the early phase of the pandemic waves. For the spring and fall pandemic waves, weestimate reproduction numbers of $1.57$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.45$, $1.70$) and $3.10$ ($2.81$, $3.39$),respectively, from the initial epidemic phase comprising the first $10$ epidemic days of thecorresponding wave. Estimates of the variance of our point estimates of $R$ were computed viaa parametric bootstrap. We compare these estimates with others obtained using differentobservation windows to provide insight into how early into an epidemic the reproductionnumber can be estimated. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1d5639fba24b41d4a57b7f731ee498cf |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2007-04-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-1d5639fba24b41d4a57b7f731ee498cf2025-01-24T01:53:48ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182007-04-014345747010.3934/mbe.2007.4.457Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, SwitzerlandGerardo Chowell0Catherine E. Ammon1Nicolas W. Hengartner2James M. Hyman3Center for Nonlinear Studies (MS B284), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545Center for Nonlinear Studies (MS B284), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545Center for Nonlinear Studies (MS B284), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545Center for Nonlinear Studies (MS B284), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545At the outset of an influenza pandemic, early estimates of the number of secondarycases generated by a primary influenza case (reproduction number, $R$) and its associateduncertainty can help determine the intensity of interventions necessary for control.Using a compartmental model and hospital notification data of the first two waves of theSpanish flu pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland in 1918, we estimate the reproduction numberfrom the early phase of the pandemic waves. For the spring and fall pandemic waves, weestimate reproduction numbers of $1.57$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.45$, $1.70$) and $3.10$ ($2.81$, $3.39$),respectively, from the initial epidemic phase comprising the first $10$ epidemic days of thecorresponding wave. Estimates of the variance of our point estimates of $R$ were computed viaa parametric bootstrap. We compare these estimates with others obtained using differentobservation windows to provide insight into how early into an epidemic the reproductionnumber can be estimated.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2007.4.457spanish flu; 1918 influenza pandemic; reproduction number;boot- strapping; nonlinear curve fitting; uncertaintyquantification; geneva; switzerland. |
| spellingShingle | Gerardo Chowell Catherine E. Ammon Nicolas W. Hengartner James M. Hyman Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering spanish flu; 1918 influenza pandemic; reproduction number;boot- strapping; nonlinear curve fitting; uncertaintyquantification; geneva; switzerland. |
| title | Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland |
| title_full | Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland |
| title_short | Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland |
| title_sort | estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the spanish flu pandemic waves in geneva switzerland |
| topic | spanish flu; 1918 influenza pandemic; reproduction number;boot- strapping; nonlinear curve fitting; uncertaintyquantification; geneva; switzerland. |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2007.4.457 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gerardochowell estimatingthereproductionnumberfromtheinitialphaseofthespanishflupandemicwavesingenevaswitzerland AT catherineeammon estimatingthereproductionnumberfromtheinitialphaseofthespanishflupandemicwavesingenevaswitzerland AT nicolaswhengartner estimatingthereproductionnumberfromtheinitialphaseofthespanishflupandemicwavesingenevaswitzerland AT jamesmhyman estimatingthereproductionnumberfromtheinitialphaseofthespanishflupandemicwavesingenevaswitzerland |