Predicting Convergence of Per Capita Income in Spain: A Markov and Cluster Approach
In this work we analyze the evolution of productivity, in terms of the convergence of per capita income, of all the Spanish provinces, based on data from the previous decade. On the one hand, a cluster analysis allows us to group the Spanish provinces according to four income levels (low, medium-low...
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MDPI AG
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Economies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/1/17 |
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| author | José F. Gálvez-Rodríguez Miguel Manzano-Hidalgo Amelia V. García-Luengo |
| author_facet | José F. Gálvez-Rodríguez Miguel Manzano-Hidalgo Amelia V. García-Luengo |
| author_sort | José F. Gálvez-Rodríguez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this work we analyze the evolution of productivity, in terms of the convergence of per capita income, of all the Spanish provinces, based on data from the previous decade. On the one hand, a cluster analysis allows us to group the Spanish provinces according to four income levels (low, medium-low, medium-high and high), which can be determined from the quartiles of the distribution, and, on the other hand, Markov chains make it possible to study the long-term evolution of productivity and convergence between the provinces, as well as the speed of convergence towards the equilibrium situation. Moreover, we can obtain the average time to return to an income level in which a province was previously. With the above, predictions of future income levels are made for the provinces, both in the current situation, and if the pandemic caused by COVID-19 had not existed, which leads us to evaluate the impact of the health emergency. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-07d80c34684d41f09936ddf9d393f677 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2227-7099 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Economies |
| spelling | doaj-art-07d80c34684d41f09936ddf9d393f6772025-01-24T13:30:02ZengMDPI AGEconomies2227-70992025-01-011311710.3390/economies13010017Predicting Convergence of Per Capita Income in Spain: A Markov and Cluster ApproachJosé F. Gálvez-Rodríguez0Miguel Manzano-Hidalgo1Amelia V. García-Luengo2Department of Mathematics, University of Almería, 04120 Almería, SpainDepartment of Mathematics, University of Almería, 04120 Almería, SpainDepartment of Mathematics, University of Almería, 04120 Almería, SpainIn this work we analyze the evolution of productivity, in terms of the convergence of per capita income, of all the Spanish provinces, based on data from the previous decade. On the one hand, a cluster analysis allows us to group the Spanish provinces according to four income levels (low, medium-low, medium-high and high), which can be determined from the quartiles of the distribution, and, on the other hand, Markov chains make it possible to study the long-term evolution of productivity and convergence between the provinces, as well as the speed of convergence towards the equilibrium situation. Moreover, we can obtain the average time to return to an income level in which a province was previously. With the above, predictions of future income levels are made for the provinces, both in the current situation, and if the pandemic caused by COVID-19 had not existed, which leads us to evaluate the impact of the health emergency.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/1/17cluster analysisMarkov chainper capita income |
| spellingShingle | José F. Gálvez-Rodríguez Miguel Manzano-Hidalgo Amelia V. García-Luengo Predicting Convergence of Per Capita Income in Spain: A Markov and Cluster Approach Economies cluster analysis Markov chain per capita income |
| title | Predicting Convergence of Per Capita Income in Spain: A Markov and Cluster Approach |
| title_full | Predicting Convergence of Per Capita Income in Spain: A Markov and Cluster Approach |
| title_fullStr | Predicting Convergence of Per Capita Income in Spain: A Markov and Cluster Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting Convergence of Per Capita Income in Spain: A Markov and Cluster Approach |
| title_short | Predicting Convergence of Per Capita Income in Spain: A Markov and Cluster Approach |
| title_sort | predicting convergence of per capita income in spain a markov and cluster approach |
| topic | cluster analysis Markov chain per capita income |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/1/17 |
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