The Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, and Rain Rate Assimilation: Case Studies with a Convection-Permitting Model
The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) is used to test the sensitivity of heavy precipitation to various model configurations: horizontal resolution, domain size, rain rate assimilation, perturbed physics, and initial condition uncertainties, through a series of convect...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7943845 |
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| author | Xingbao Wang Peter Steinle Alan Seed Yi Xiao |
| author_facet | Xingbao Wang Peter Steinle Alan Seed Yi Xiao |
| author_sort | Xingbao Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) is used to test the sensitivity of heavy precipitation to various model configurations: horizontal resolution, domain size, rain rate assimilation, perturbed physics, and initial condition uncertainties, through a series of convection-permitting simulations of three heavy precipitation (greater than 200 mm day−1) cases in different synoptic backgrounds. The larger disparity of intensity histograms and rainfall fluctuation caused by different model configurations from their mean and/or control run indicates that heavier precipitation forecasts have larger uncertainty. A cross-verification exercise is used to quantify the impacts of different model parameters on heavy precipitation. The dispersion of skill scores with control run used as “truth” shows that the impacts of the model resolution and domain size on the quantitative precipitation forecast are not less than those of perturbed physics and initial field uncertainties in these not intentionally selected heavy precipitation cases. The result indicates that model resolution and domain size should be considered as part of probabilistic precipitation forecasts and ensemble prediction system design besides the model initial field uncertainty. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-07a7fc1be8e74c7daf31a462c90679a4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-07a7fc1be8e74c7daf31a462c90679a42025-02-03T01:01:01ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172016-01-01201610.1155/2016/79438457943845The Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, and Rain Rate Assimilation: Case Studies with a Convection-Permitting ModelXingbao Wang0Peter Steinle1Alan Seed2Yi Xiao3Research and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3008, AustraliaResearch and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3008, AustraliaResearch and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3008, AustraliaResearch and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3008, AustraliaThe Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) is used to test the sensitivity of heavy precipitation to various model configurations: horizontal resolution, domain size, rain rate assimilation, perturbed physics, and initial condition uncertainties, through a series of convection-permitting simulations of three heavy precipitation (greater than 200 mm day−1) cases in different synoptic backgrounds. The larger disparity of intensity histograms and rainfall fluctuation caused by different model configurations from their mean and/or control run indicates that heavier precipitation forecasts have larger uncertainty. A cross-verification exercise is used to quantify the impacts of different model parameters on heavy precipitation. The dispersion of skill scores with control run used as “truth” shows that the impacts of the model resolution and domain size on the quantitative precipitation forecast are not less than those of perturbed physics and initial field uncertainties in these not intentionally selected heavy precipitation cases. The result indicates that model resolution and domain size should be considered as part of probabilistic precipitation forecasts and ensemble prediction system design besides the model initial field uncertainty.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7943845 |
| spellingShingle | Xingbao Wang Peter Steinle Alan Seed Yi Xiao The Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, and Rain Rate Assimilation: Case Studies with a Convection-Permitting Model Advances in Meteorology |
| title | The Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, and Rain Rate Assimilation: Case Studies with a Convection-Permitting Model |
| title_full | The Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, and Rain Rate Assimilation: Case Studies with a Convection-Permitting Model |
| title_fullStr | The Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, and Rain Rate Assimilation: Case Studies with a Convection-Permitting Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, and Rain Rate Assimilation: Case Studies with a Convection-Permitting Model |
| title_short | The Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, and Rain Rate Assimilation: Case Studies with a Convection-Permitting Model |
| title_sort | sensitivity of heavy precipitation to horizontal resolution domain size and rain rate assimilation case studies with a convection permitting model |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7943845 |
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