A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting
The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Engineering |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/760860 |
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| _version_ | 1832547477281046528 |
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| author | Suseelatha Annamareddi Sudheer Gopinathan Bharathi Dora |
| author_facet | Suseelatha Annamareddi Sudheer Gopinathan Bharathi Dora |
| author_sort | Suseelatha Annamareddi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-03d8d514a4874b9fa67ce2493a816d34 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2314-4904 2314-4912 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-03d8d514a4874b9fa67ce2493a816d342025-02-03T06:44:28ZengWileyJournal of Engineering2314-49042314-49122013-01-01201310.1155/2013/760860760860A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load ForecastingSuseelatha Annamareddi0Sudheer Gopinathan1Bharathi Dora2Mathematics Department, GVP College of Engineering for Women, Visakhapatnam 530048, IndiaMathematics Department, GVP College of Engineering for Women, Visakhapatnam 530048, IndiaEngineering Mathematics Department, A.U College of Engineering, Visakhapatnam 530003, IndiaThe paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/760860 |
| spellingShingle | Suseelatha Annamareddi Sudheer Gopinathan Bharathi Dora A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting Journal of Engineering |
| title | A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting |
| title_full | A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting |
| title_fullStr | A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting |
| title_short | A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting |
| title_sort | simple hybrid model for short term load forecasting |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/760860 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT suseelathaannamareddi asimplehybridmodelforshorttermloadforecasting AT sudheergopinathan asimplehybridmodelforshorttermloadforecasting AT bharathidora asimplehybridmodelforshorttermloadforecasting AT suseelathaannamareddi simplehybridmodelforshorttermloadforecasting AT sudheergopinathan simplehybridmodelforshorttermloadforecasting AT bharathidora simplehybridmodelforshorttermloadforecasting |