Published 2025-05-01
“…Additionally, we use meteorological data from a set of sensors installed at a meteorological station located in Belém to train multivariate statistical and machine
learning (ML) models to predict precipitation. Besides the use of algorithms, another evaluation was conducted on Feature
Composition based on statistical methods to investigate the impact of variables on the prediction.ResultsThe results obtained in our investigation indicate that the vector autoregressive moving average with exogenous regressors (VARMAX) model achieved the best performance in rainfall forecasting, with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.1833 in time series cross-validation, outperforming the other models.DiscussionThe climate-driven patterns directly influenced the performance of the rainfall forecasting models evaluated in this study. …”
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